MLB Player Prop Pick for Wednesday, October 9: Bryce Harper draws ball 4

The Philadelphia Phillies have their backs against the wall, having fallen behind 2-1 in their series with the New York Mets. Game 4 should be an electric matchup, but I don’t expect Bryce Harper to see many quality pitches to hit. Let’s dive in!

Bryce Harper (PHI) over 0.5 batter walks (-105)

Bryce Harper was walked twice in each of the first 2 games of this series and nearly walked again in Game 3, jumping ahead 3-0 in a count before eventually swinging the bat. The Phillies lineup is filled with notable names, but no batter is more potent at the plate for them than Bryce Harper. The Mets understand this and are likely to try and limit the number of hittable pitches the lefty slugger will face. Harper generated a 12.0% walk rate during the regular season, a number that ranked him in the 94th percentile among all MLB hitters. He has had a double-digit walk rate in each MLB season so far in his career, and it is clear that Harper has an elite eye at the plate.

The worry is that Harper could be a bit more aggressive given his team trails in the series and could be eliminated with another loss, but there are plenty of routes for this to cash in my opinion. Harper played 13 postseason games last season, walking 13 times total while generating ball 4 at least once in 9 of those contests. Jose Quintana, the Mets starter for Game 4, allowed an 8.8% walk rate this season which ranked him just 38th percentile among MLB pitchers. Harper does see a slight uptick in his walk rate when facing southpaw pitching as well, and there is a good chance we don’t even need to wait for a bullpen arm to cash this bet.