The Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-2) visit UFCU Stadium to take on the Texas State Bobcats (3-2) on Oct. 12 in San Marcos, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Texas State is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).
The Arkansas State vs. Texas State Over/Under is 63.5 total points.
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Arkansas State vs Texas State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 84.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas St and Texas State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Texas State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 66.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Texas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+6.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.40 Units / 15% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arkansas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Arkansas State Player Prop Bets Today
- Courtney Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jaylen Raynor has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Corey Rucker has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 10.15% ROI
- Arkansas State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.15 Units / -26.74% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.85 Units / 18.89% ROI
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas State is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- Texas State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -60.68% ROI
- Texas State is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Texas State is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
Arkansas State is 9-2 (.818) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 24th-best in FBS; Average: .649
Arkansas State is 8-3 (.727) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551
Arkansas State is undefeated (8-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .683
Arkansas State is 6-1 (.857) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .609
Texas State is 4-3 (.571) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .440
Texas State is 9-6 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .397
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .557
Texas State is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .554
Texas State’s WRs has 337 receptions in 18 games (18.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has 337 receptions in 18 games (18.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.