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The Kansas City Chiefs put their undefeated record on the line as home favorites in a Monday Night Football matchup when they host the New Orleans Saints to conclude Week 5.
- Kansas City is seeking to become the first reigning Super Bowl odds champion to start 5-0 since 2019
- The Chiefs have held all four opponents under their season scoring average
- New Orleans has lost two straight games after owning the league's best point differential off of a 2-0 start
Our Saints vs. Chiefs prediction based on the Monday Night Football odds puts these two teams' records aside and backs the road underdogs by the NFL Week 5 odds with our most confident five-star play.
Best Saints vs. Chiefs picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Saints +5.5 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Chiefs ?????
- Player prop: Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 receptions (+100 via bet365) ????
Saints vs. Chiefs against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Records don't tell the whole story of these teams.
New Orleans started the season with 91 points through the first two weeks, which was four shy of the NFL record set by the 1968 Oakland Raiders.
Since then, the Saints' two losses have come by five combined points, and include a loss to the division-leading Atlanta Falcons despite not allowing them to score an offensive touchdown.
Conversely, luck has been on Kansas City's side amid its 4-0 start. The Chiefs were a toe away from potentially going to overtime against the Baltimore Ravens, needed a miracle fourth-and-long conversion to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, escaped after multiple key fourth-down stops against Atlanta, and trailed by 10 points before mounting a comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers.
All four wins have been by seven or fewer points.
Through Week 3 before landing on IR with a knee injury, Rice's 24 receptions ranked first in the league, and were the most through three weeks in Chiefs history. Rice also ranked second among all receivers in receiving yards (288), was tied for second in targets (32), and was second in target share (37%).
Patrick Mahomes will likely be severely impacted by the absence of his best receiver. When targeting Rice since last season, he has posted an 8-1 TD-INT ratio, averaged 9.2 yards per attempt, completed 76% of his passes, and Rice had a 3% drop rate. When targeting all other receivers, Mahomes had a 9-10 TD-INT ratio, averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, and completed 58% of his passes with an 8% drop percentage.
If one was judging Mahomes on this year's performance alone, would he even be considered an elite quarterback?
Mahomes' five interceptions are the third-most in the NFL. He also ranks 17th in Total QBR (53), 11th in passing yards per game (226), 22nd in TD-INT ratio (6-5), tied for 17th in rushing yards per game (15.3), and is 16th in fantasy points per game (14.4).
Speaking of fantasy points, Mahomes has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback once in the last 13 games, while New Orleans has allowed 10.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. In addition, the Saints have allowed one passing touchdown and have six interceptions this year.
Conversely, Derek Carr has thrived in Klint Kubiak's system, earning PFF's best quarterback grade, ranks eight spots ahead of Mahomes in QBR, and has led the Saints' offense to top-five rankings in offensive EPA and DVOA.
Carr is 7-3-1 ATS in 11 career Monday Night Football games. In addition, he has always performed better from an ATS perspective in an underdog role, covering 54.5% of his career games as a 'dog and 36.7% of his games when favored. Conversely, Mahomes has covered 4 6% of his games when favored by more than a field goal and is 25-8-1 ATS in games when his teams are shorter than a field goal favorite or underdog.
All of our best NFL betting sites are in unison with a spread of 5.5 points, but FanDuel is one of the only ones charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the underdogs. Through FanDuel's -105 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $9.52 in profits.
Saints vs. Chiefs player prop
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Rice's injury frees up a ton more targets to Kansas City's perimeter players. In theory.
However, Worthy is still more of a deep threat and one-trick pony at this point in his career, and I expect JuJu Smith-Schuster to take on more of the role of possession receiver.
New Orleans' defense is more susceptible to tight ends than it is to vertical threats. The Saints have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, so Travis Kelce is more likely to build off the momentum of his season-best game last week.
Worthy has just a 60% catch rate when targeted this season, and is receiving the first look on dropbacks (based on first-read share) less than one out of every four times (23.1%).
It is not often one can find plus-money odds on traditional O/U prop wagers, and there is great value at that number, considering Worthy's implied probability to haul in three or fewer passes is as high as 54.95% based on FanDuel's -122 odds.
Phil Wood likes this prop too as part of his Saints vs. Chiefs MNF prop bets.
Saints vs. Chiefs odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Saints vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 61 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph E
- Favorite: Chiefs -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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