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The Cleveland Guardians jumped on the Detroit Tigers early in Game 1 en route to a tidy 7-0 victory, and the Tigers look to even the series with the likely AL Cy Young Award winner on the mound on Monday.
- Cleveland's 7-0 victory in Game 1 matched the team's largest margin of victory in a shutout in postseason history
- The shutout was also the worst in Tigers playoff history since the 1945 World Series
- Cleveland is the first home underdog of the playoffs so far with the fourth-longest World Series odds of the eight remaining teams
We went 1-1 with our two picks in the first game of this ALDS, and our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction for Game 2 calls for the home underdogs to take a commanding 2-0 lead.
Tigers vs. Guardians predictions: Game 2
- Moneyline pick: Guardians (+110 via FanDuel)
- Riley Greene player prop bet: Under 0.5 hits (+135 via BetMGM)
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Tigers vs. Guardians?
First pitch: 4:08 p.m. ET, Progressive Field
Best odds: +110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.62%
At some point, Detroit's lack of power and dearth of contact hitters are going to catch up with it, and Cleveland's deep bullpen should make up for the huge starting pitching edge the Tigers have in this game.
Last year, teams went 25-4 in the postseason when out-homering their opponents with a .843 winning percentage since 2018. That does not bode well for continued success from the Tigers, who finished the regular season ranked 24th in home runs.
Detroit is also striking out at too high of a clip. Entering this series, Colt Ke ith was the only regular in the Tigers lineup that had a strikeout rate under 20% (the league average was 22.6%).
In addition, some of their best hitters like Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, and Riley Greene all struck out in at least 25.3% of their plate appearances.
Of all playoff teams, the Guardians had the second-lowest OPS from the top three spots of their lineup. But what Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and others do well is take a lot of pitches and work opposing pitchers' pitch counts.
The Guardians should also come in with confidence knowing they produced 10 hits off Tarik Skubal in his only start against them this year. That was the most hits Skubal allowed this season, and he only allowed eight-plus hits in two other appearances.
A $10 winning wager at these +110 odds via FanDuel would net $11 in profits.
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Greene is the only Tigers hitter who has ever faced Matthew Boyd, and he's hitless in the only at-bat against the southpaw.
Despite the unknown in this head-to-head matchup, this is a three-star play given Greene's struggles all season against southpaws, as he slashed .213/.265/.433 in that split.
Greene has one hit in two of three postseason games thus far, but the bulk of his at-bats should come against a Guardians bullpen that struck out batters at the third-highest rate (26%).
The odds for Greene to go hitless are as low as +130 at DraftKings, so the best price for Under backers is at BetMGM, where a $10 bet would profit $13.50.
Best odds: +135 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 42.55%
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Tigers vs. Guardians odds & game info
- When: Monday, Oct. 7
- First pitch: 4:08 p.m. ET
- Where: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
- How to watch: TBS/truTV/Max
- Favorite: Tigers (-125 via BetMGM)
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