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With rumors swirling that superstar wide receiver Davante Adams could be Baltimore bound – rumors he, himself, is fueling – we wonder whether Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson shows off his arm against the Cincinnati Bengals as a preview of sorts.
- These teams have traveled in opposite directions in the Super Bowl odds since the season began; Cincinnati opened around +1300 and is now trading at +2500, while Baltimore has shortened from +1000 to +850 following its significant win over the Buffalo Bills
- The 1-3 Bengals finally earned their first win last week, but it came against the Carolina Panthers
- Baltimore looks like a lean, mean, football-running machine, and a superstar wideout might be on the way ??
Our Ravens vs. Bengals player prop bets look at whether Cincy wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase can continue his touchdown streak, and wonder if Jackson throws the ball more in preparation for the potent ial arrival of Adams.
This is just one of the many games we're featuring as part of our NFL Week 5 predictions.
Ravens vs. Bengals NFL player prop bets: Sunday
Odds as of Friday and subject to change.
- Ja'Marr Chase touchdown pick: To score a touchdown (+135 via Caesars) ????
- Lamar Jackson Over 199.5 passing yards (-110 via DraftKings) ????
- Nelson Agholor Over 1.5 receptions (+135 via bet365) ???
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Ravens vs. Bengals touchdown pick
Chase has scored in two straight games following a slow start to the season, commanding 13 targets in those contests.
That's a bit of a silly trend, tho ugh, and we don't make picks based on silly trends. However, what we do bet on is value based on projections, and we're seeing a ton of value on Chase's TD prop in Week 5.
In fact, Chase is getting the best touchdown projection among all wide receivers based on NumberFire's model. He's just ahead of Mike Evans, whom I also bet on for Thursday night's game, and that cashed with ease.
Evans' price to score a touchdown was +140, and the odds for Chase are just a tad shorter at +135. That's just at Caesars, though, as our other best sports betting sites range from +100 to +115.
Therefore, we're not only getting value based on the projection but also versus the price everywhere else. I hit this myself for a unit and suggest you do the same.
Best odds: +135 via Caesars | Implied probability: 42.55%
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Best Ravens vs. Bengals prop bets
Now, to the storyline everyone is interested in.
Rumors have been swirling for more than a week now that Adams wants out of Las Vegas, and things heated up on Friday with Adams posting a picture of Edgar Allen Poe to his Instagram story. For those wondering what the significance of that is here, perhaps Poe's most famous poem is “The Raven,” which the team is famously named after. Is Adams telling us something? Or is he simply trolling?
Fortunately, it doesn't matter for us.
Jackson is projected to throw for nearly 225 yards on Sunday, so we're getting better than 30% positive expected value on this bet. Meanwhile, Pinnacle – which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry – is setting Jackson's total at 206.5.
This total is way too low, primarily because J ackson threw only 18 times in Week 4 while he and Derrick Henry combined to run the ball 30 times.
This game profiles as more of a shootout though, with the total set at 49 across most of our best sports betting apps.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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In what could be his last hurrah of sorts, the Ravens' No. 3 wide receiver – based on targets – looks like a good bet to haul in at least two catches on Sunday. Or at least his Over on 1.5 receptions at these +135 odds profiles as a high EV play.
Sure, Agholor's receptions projection is just 1.65, but we're still getting better than 15% +EV on this bet based on that number. That's because this price suggests there's only a 42.55% probability of recording two-plus catches. And his projection suggests that should be closer to 48 or 49%.
Based on that implied probability, a fair price for Agholor's Over would be closer to +110. Therefore, we're going to take advantage of this price and ride with a bet that positively correlates with our Jackson passing Over.
Best odds: +135 via bet365 | Implied probability: 42.55%
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Ravens vs. Bengals game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 6
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 83 degrees, 15% chance of precipitation, 13-mph winds
- Favorite: Ravens -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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