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The Oregon Ducks host their first game as a member of the Big Ten when the Michigan State Spartans head to Eugene for a Friday night matchup.
- Oregon has dropped from preseason No. 3 to No. 6 in the AP poll despite being one of the 19 undefeated FBS teams
- Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel is among the Heisman Trophy odds contenders
- Oregon leads the all-time series 4-3 against Michigan State
Our Michigan State vs. Oregon player prop bets find value in a quick score from the Ducks quarterback, while also focusing on two of Michigan State's skill position players.
For more of our thoughts on this matchup, check out our Michigan State vs. Oregon prediction, all serving as part of our college football Week 6 predictions.
Michigan State vs. Oregon college football player prop bets: Friday
Odds as of Friday and subject to change.
- Dillon Gabriel touchdown pick: First half anytime touchdown scorer (+400 via FanDuel) ???
- Montorie Foster Under 36.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ???
- Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams Over 39.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ????
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Michigan State vs. Oregon touchdown pick
Dillon Gabriel does not fill up the stat sheet from a rushing yards perspective (49 rushing yards through four games), but he is a weapon with his legs in terms of chunk plays (his longest rush is 54 yards this year) and in the red zone (two rushing touchdowns).
Gabriel's two rushing scores both came in the first half of games this year, and with Oregon being 24-point favorites, it is likely that he will not have many designed runs in the second half. The Spartans have allowed rushing touchdowns to two quarterbacks in the last four games, and by limiting this wager to the first half, we are taking Gabriel's anytime touchdown odds from as low as +110 to a much bigger payout.
There is a big gap between FanDuel's generous +400 odds and bet365's +230 odds for this same wager, so I am making my $10 wager at FanDuel, hoping to net $40 in profits.
Best odds: +400 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 20.00%
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Best Michigan State vs. Oregon prop bets
Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles has shown flashes of brilliance this year, as his 363 passing yards against Maryland were the eighth-most in a game in school history. However, in that game, Montorie Foster cashed in on only six catches for 53 yards (the third-most on the team).
He has been used more as a possession receiver, as his 19 catches are six more than any other Spartans receiver, but his 11.4 yards per reception average ranks fifth among all Michigan State wideouts.
The biggest reason for support on this Under is that Foster is likely to draw plenty of coverage from standout Ducks cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, who has the most passes defended on a defense that ranks third nationally in that metric.
The best number is found at FanDuel, as other best sports betting sites like Caesars have a slightly lower O/U of 34.5. With FanDuel's -114 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.77.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams is one of two Spartans running backs (Nathan Carter is the other) who have rushed for 2,000-plus yards in their career, which makes Michigan State one of seven teams in the country to have two 2,000-yard rushers on the roster.
Carter began the season looking like he would be the featured back, with 30 carries through the first two games compared to Lynch-Adams' 19 in that span. Since then, Lynch-Adams has 16 more carries than Carter over the last three games, with 15-plus carries in two of the previous three.
The Spartans will likely rely on the running game as long as they can to control time of possession and keep Oregon's high-powered offense off the field. Considering Lynch-Adams and Carter have combined for 69% of the team's rushing attempts, there should not be much competition outside the duo for carries.
DraftKings is juiced to -125 (carried a 55.56% implied probability) for him to reach 40 rushing yards, and his odds are as high as -128 at Caesars for the same number, so the best return for Over backers is found at FanDuel.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Michigan State vs. Oregon game info
- When: Friday, Oct. 4
- Kickoff: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oreg.
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 55 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph E
- Favorite: Oregon -24 (-115 via BetMGM)
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