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NFL underdogs went 5-11 straight-up in Week 4, and bettors should have plenty of opportunities to cash in on more upsets despite Week 5 having a smaller 14-game slate.
- Last week was the first of the season in which the biggest underdog didn't pull off the upset
- Four of last week's five upsets came in the 1:00 p.m. ET time slot
- Nine of the 14 favorites in Week 5 have point spreads of a field goal or lower
Our Week 5 NFL upset picks get involved early with the Thursday Night Football clash, and we're also targeting an AFC West matchup as well as one of the best teams in the league as road underdogs. Make sure to check out all of our NFL Week 5 predictions for more great betting advice!
NFL underdogs to back: Week 5
NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Buccaneers (+108 via FanDuel) at Falcons ???
- Bills (+102 via FanDuel) at Texans ????
- Raiders (+130 via DraftKings) at Broncos ???
Week 5 upset predictions
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Baker Mayfield is making a case to be put in the elite tier of NFL quarterbacks.
In his last 10 starts, he is 8-2 with a 19-5 TD-INT ratio. He also ranks in the top four of all quarterbacks this season in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and off-target percentage, and he got several teammates involved last week, targeting nine different players (three had nine-plus targets).
Jalen Hurts was sacked a career-high six times in last week's loss to Tampa Bay, and that pressure should give the less mobile Kirk Cousins fits. Speaking of Cousins, since 2020 he is the least profitable ATS quarterback when playing in games indoors, and Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as favorites against NFC opponents.
The Falcons are also coming off a week in which they scored zero offensive touchdowns, and the injuries to two starting offensive linemen (Kaleb McGary and Drew Dalman) should be too much to overcome on a short week.
Find out more reasons why I like Tampa Bay to pull the upset on Thursday Night Football in my Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction.
Best odds: +108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.08%
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Buffalo's defense was exposed last week, as the Ravens ran for 271 yards and 8.0 yards per carry. However, Baltimore was a completely different matchup than what the Bills were used to.
Buffalo's first three opponents (Cardinals, Jaguars, and Dolphins) were all ranked in the top-10 in percentage of their throws attempted outside the numbers, and they were all also top-10 in pushing the ball downfield (per attempts of 20-plus air yards). The Ravens rank in the bottom three of each of those categories, and their 6.38 yards per rush are the fourth-most in NFL history through four games (min. 100 rush attempts).
Houston is not a team that will line up and pound opponents with a bruising running game like Baltimore. And while C.J. Stroud was better on deep passes against the Jaguars, he struggled over the first three weeks on passes 15 or more yards downfield, completing 9-of-22 passes for 77 passing yards per game, and had a 36% off-target percentage.
This is the Bills' second of three consecutive road games, but as long as I am getting plus-money odds on their moneyline as I am at FanDuel, they are worth a play. A winning $10 wager would pay out $20.20.
Best odds: +102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.50%
Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce voiced his displeasure on many different things he saw in the team's Week 3 loss to the Panthers, and a lot of those were seemingly cleaned up in last week's 20-16 win over the Browns.
Las Vegas overcame the absence of its best offensive and defensive players (Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby) and leaned on a bruising running game to beat Cleveland. The Raiders ran for 152 yards and two touchdowns after totaling 153 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns total over the first three weeks.
The Raiders' defense also comes in with momentum after producing season-bests in points allowed (16), yards allowed (241), and rushing yards allowed (92).
Denver was fortunate to leave New York with a win last week, as it was shut out and did not convert a single third down in the first half, while totaling minus-7 passing yards. Denver's 186 yards were its fewest in a win (186) since 1983.
The +130 odds at DraftKings are a great value considering Las Vegas has won eight consecutive games in this rivalry. Should it make it nine straight, our winning $10 wager would net $13 in profits.
Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.48%
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