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Houston hasn't scored a point since the week before the autumnal equinox, and now the Cougars are taking on a TCU Horned Frogs team that ranks in the top 25 nationally in scoring average.
Forgive us if our Houston vs. TCU prediction isn't particularly eager to put much stock into the Cougars' chances to keep Friday's matchup close.
TCU isn't setting the world on fire in the Big 12 Championship odds, but it's at least among the contenders. Houston is nowhere to be found.
Friday's showdown is just a slice of the exhilarating college football action ahead of us, and we've done a deep dive into it all with our college football Week 6 predictions.
Best Houston vs. TCU picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: TCU -15.5 (-115 via FanDuel) vs. Houston ????
- Player prop pick: Savion Williams Under 45.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ????
Houston vs. TCU against the spread prediction: Week 6
Houston vs. TCU opening odds:
- Houston: +17 (-110)
- TCU: -17 (-110)
Considering its early woes against the spread, it's daunting to see TCU as such a heavy favorite. But the Horned Frogs missed a cover by the hook in their home opener against LIU, so we're not necessarily holding that 45-0 win against them even though it did contribute to their 1-4 ATS record entering Friday night.
Still, with a team that has struggled against the spread featured as a 15.5-point favorite, I'd have to see some pretty damning data on the other side not to bet against them. Then again, damned is the best description I could imagine for the Cougars' offense.
Houston hasn't scored a point since Sept. 14, having been shut out by Iowa State and Cincinnati in its two most recent games. As a result, it lost both games by margins greater than Friday's point spread.
TCU averages 37.0 points per game (18th in FBS) and has scored 34 or more points in all five games played this season. TCU's defense runs middle of the pack (65th in adjusted defensive efficiency) but it's decent enough to win against Houston's offense (121st in adjusted efficiency).
FanDuel lists the spread with inflated -115 odds, but it's worth the price to get the TCU -15.5 spread compared to -16.5 at other best sports betting sites.
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Houston vs. TCU prop pick for Week 6
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TCU wide receiver Savion Williams has been pretty consistent in the receiving yards category this season, clearing 45.5 in four of five games. But we're fading his likelihood to reach that target in this matchup.
Although Houston can't seem to score worth a lick, its strength as a team has come in limiting opposing passing attacks. The Cougars have allowed 147.3 passing yards per game on the season, ranking 10th in FBS in the category.
Houston's run defense ranks 64th in FBS in yards per game. With an expected positive game script, TCU could lean on the ground game, boxing its third-most-prominent pass-catcher into a quieter night. Williams has been consistent, but not explosive, averaging just 42.0 receiving yards per game over his last three contests.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Houston vs. TCU odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Houston vs. TCU game info
- When: Friday, Oct. 4
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 86 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, winds 6 mph SE
- Favorite: TCU -16.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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