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Our anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football have some work to do after an 0-for-4 Sunday dropped my picks to minus-5.30 units for the season. Fortunately, Thursdays have been very good to us through four weeks.
We're complementing Mike Spector's Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction and Phil Wood's Buccaneers vs. Falcons TNF prop bets while looking for a big payday during this all-NFC South TNF matchup. Tonight's winner will be first in the division, with the Falcons looking to unseat the Bucs.
The Thursday Night Football odds list the Falcons as short home favorites, and they're also the better team, according to the Super Bowl odds. But the Bucs just dominated the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Dirty Birds needed a 58-yard field goal to top the rival New Orleans Saints last week.
Rodrigo Villagomez's first touchdown s corer predictions have us covered for some instant gratification.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Best odds: +800 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 11.11%
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While Raheem Morris leads a new coaching staff for the Falcons, defending against mobile quarterbacks remains a glaring weakness. Atlanta has given up a league-high 164 rushing yards to QBs through four weeks.
Though Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts accounted for a sizeable chunk, I'm expecting Mayfield to exploit the same weakness. The +800 odds for him to do so return an $80 profit on a winning $10 bet. Those odds aren't reflective of the Falcons' defense or Mayfield's two rushing scores on 12 total attempts this season.
The Buccaneers are using – and scheming for – Mayfield's running ability in short-yardage situations and near the goal line. He's 2-for-2 when trying to convert red-zone carries into touchdowns.
Mayfield's odds to score Thursday are as low as +425 at DraftKings, and he's among the most popular anytime touchdown scorer bets at BetMGM.
Best odds: +240 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 29.41%
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Tyler Allgeier looked like Atlanta's best back for large chunks of last week's home game while Bijan Robinson battled a hamstring injury and unproductive play/play-calling. He finished with a season-high 80 yards from scrimmage on 10 touches. His 6.1 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per target through four games are both career bests.
The third-year back is forcing the hand of offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to get him more involved in the Falcons' struggling offense. He'll get that opportunity Thursday against a Buccaneers defense allowing 5.09 yards per carry – the NFL's seventh-worst rate.
The Bucs have also allowed three rushing touchdowns to running backs. Allgeier is yet to score this season, but he's received six red-zone carries.
A $10 bet on him to break into the end zone Thursday pays a $24 profit via our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS.
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