Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction, Picks & Odds, 10-4: Week 6

The Michigan State Spartans and Oregon Ducks kick off the last of four FBS college football games on Friday night in a Big Ten clash from Autzen Stadium.

• This is Michigan State's first trip to Eugene since 2014 and first with Oregon as Big Ten opponents
• Oregon has one of the highest college football playoff odds implied probabilities (83.33%) to reach the playoffs
• Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel ranks among the top five Heisman Trophy odds favorites

Our Michigan State vs. Oregon prediction, part of our college football Week 6 predictions, analyzes why the Spartans will cover the big spread in their first home game as a Big Ten Conference member.

Best Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Oregon -24 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Michigan State ????
• Player prop pick: Montorie Foster Under 36.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ?????

Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction against the spread prediction: Week 6

Michigan State vs. Oregon opening odds:

• Michigan State: +24.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Oregon: -24.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith is very familiar with the Ducks, having come from Oregon State. His Beavers went 0-3 in road games in the Civil War rivalry during his tenure, getting outscored by 47 points in that span.

In addition, his Oregon State teams topped 10 points just once in those three games, and many of those had more talent at the skill positions than this Michigan State squad has.

The Ducks have fallen from a preseason ranking of No. 3 down to No. 6 despite their undefeated record, as their early-season performances have been less than inspiring.

Oregon won home games against Idaho and Boise State by a combined 13 points but have since hit their stride, with a +56 point differential in wins over Oregon State and UCLA.

Oregon's defense did not allow an offensive touchdown last week and, at one point, forced a turnover and three consecutive three-and-outs in a four-drive span. And after making stops at UCF and Oklahoma, Dillon Gabriel is finding his footing in the Ducks offense.

Gabriel has completed 83.3% of his passes in three of four games, finished with a QBR of 83.4 or better in back-to-back weeks, and has a 9-1 TD-INT ratio this year.

The Ducks defense enters this game ranked in the top 25 in Standard Downs and Passing Downs Success Rate. They lived in UCLA's backfield last week, forcing seven tackles with four sacks while limiting the Bruins to 26:30 in time of possession.

Michigan State is likely going to need plenty of touchdowns to keep pace with the high-powered Ducks. However, Michigan State ranks 126th out of 134 FBS teams in Finishing Drives, producing just seven points in its last four red zone trips (the one touchdown it scored came on a drive that started at the opponent's 12-yard line).

Oregon has covered just one of four games this year, but I expect it to have plenty offensively to cover a big spread against a Spartans team that has averaged just 13 points per game over the last two weeks.

Several of our other top sports betting sites are juiced to -112 or higher to back the favorites, or offer a spread of -24.5. Thus, the best price and number are at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager would profit $9.09.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction prop pick for Week 6

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Considering he has been picked off eight times, backing Aidan Chiles' Over 0.5 interceptions is the easier play. However, those odds are at an unappealing -213, so I am fading Michigan State's passing game with a wager that returns much more value.

Montorie Foster is Michigan State's second-leading receiver in yards (217) and leading receiver in receptions (19), six more than any other Spartans receiver.

That will likely draw the defensive assignment of cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, who leads the Ducks in passes defended on a defense that ranks third nationally in that category.

Foster had gone Over this projected total in three consecu tive weeks before being held to two catches and 17 yards against Ohio State. I expect him to have a similarly frustrating day, especially since he is not a big-play threat. His longest reception thus far is 16 yards.

Caesars has a slightly lower O/U of 34.5, so the best number for Under backers is at FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would profit $8.77.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Michigan State vs. Oregon game info

• When: Friday, Oct. 4
• Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)
• How to watch: FOX
• Weather: 63 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph NW
• Favorite: Oregon -24 (-115 via BetMGM)

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