The New Orleans Saints (2-2-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0-0) on Oct. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Saints vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 61.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 52.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today
- Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Cedrick Wilson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 60% ROI)
- Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Marquise Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 53% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.70 Units / 29% ROI)
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 44.19% ROI).
- Saints are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 16.98% ROI
- Saints are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Saints are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 21.18% ROI).
- Chiefs are 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 43.96% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Saints are 7-1 (.875) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 9 passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-fewest in NFL.
The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Saints were 2-5 (.286) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Saints are 1-5 (.167) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .295.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Chiefs are 10-4 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .277.
The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chiefs are 13-3 (.812) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Saints have averaged just 2.2 sacks per game over that time span — T-5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have averaged 0.37 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed 0.21 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.