The Pittsburgh Panthers (4-0) visit Kenan Stadium to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (3-2) on Oct. 5 in Chapel Hill, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Pitt is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 64.5 total points.
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Pittsburgh vs North Carolina Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Pitt and North Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Pittsburgh Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.05 Units / 72% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 17% ROI)
North Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.80 Units / 12% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Pittsburgh players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pittsburgh Player Prop Bets Today
- Konata Mumpfield has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Rodney Hammond Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Gavin Bartholomew has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for North Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best North Carolina Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Omarion Hampton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.10 Units / 95% ROI)
- Nate McCollum has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Omarion Hampton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kobe Paysour has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Pitt is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 68.18% ROI).
- Pittsburgh is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 5.47% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.69% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.25 Units / -28.09% ROI
North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.15 Units / -3.37% ROI).
- North Carolina is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 4.13% ROI
- North Carolina is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
- North Carolina is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
Pittsburgh is 2-6 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .392
Pittsburgh is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 39th-worst in FBS; Average: .424
Pittsburgh is 5-1 (.833) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .684
Pittsburgh is 2-5 (.286) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .451
North Carolina is 3-6 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .506
North Carolina is 3-6 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
North Carolina is 6-1 (.857) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: .535
North Carolina is 10-2 (.833) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .600
North Carolina’s RBs has rushed for 2,851 yards on 501 carries (5.7 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-17th-best among FBS RBs. Pittsburgh’s defense have allowed just 3.5 YPC since the 2023 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina has 388 receptions in 18 games (21.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 32nd-best among FBS skill players. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed just 16.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.