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The Oregon Ducks are huge favorites over the Michigan State Spartans ahead of their Friday night matchup. My Michigan State vs. Oregon early picks, predictions & leans are set to give you a betting advantage days before kickoff.
The Spartans have lost back-to-back games, falling 38-7 against the Ohio State Buckeyes this past weekend.
Meanwhile, the Ducks have started to look like a top-10 team after struggling against two mediocre teams to start the season. Their last two wins have each been by more than 30 points. As part of our Week 6 college football predictions, we look to see if they can cover as massive favorites again this week.
My early Michigan State vs. Oregon prediction
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The Spartans have not had a single game finish with more than 52 points this season. The closest they came was a 27-24 win over the Maryland Terrapins in Week 2. But this game isn't about the Spartans. It's about the Ducks.
Behind the excellent play of quarterback Dillon Gabriel and running back Jordan James, the Ducks are averaging 40 points per game. That's 14th-best in the nation. The Spartans' defense has allowed at least 23 points in three of their four games against FBS opponents, so the Ducks will have no problem scoring here.
The Ducks have allowed at least 13 points in every game this season. Even with questionable offensive play from Aidan Chiles and company, they should score at least 14 in this game. That would be enough to push this over.
Don't miss our guide for how to bet on college football or this week's best sportsbook promos.
Michigan State vs. Oregon live odds
See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every Week X game.
- Oregon best odds: -2500 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 96.15%
- Michigan State best odds: +1400 via bet365 | Implied probability: 6.67%
There's no reason to play the moneyline in this game, even in a parlay. That said, BetMGM and Caesars are both offering -2500 for Oregon, which is significantly better than some of the other prices being offered. Right now, FanDuel is asking -3500. If you think the Spartans can pull off the upset, bet them at bet365, as no other sportsbook offers better than +1300 for them to win.
- Oregon best odds: -23.5 (-110) via BetMGM
- Michigan State best odds: +24 (-110) via bet365
At the time of writing, 53% of wagers back the Spartans to cover this spread. With bettors so split on what will happen in this game, it's unlikely there will be any significant movement one way or the other. That said, we'd expect this number to shrink before kickoff.
The Ducks have won their last two games by more than 30 points, but they won their first two games by a combined 13 points. The Spartans very nearly covered against the Buckeyes last week before giving up two touchdowns in the final five minutes. Sharps will notice that.
- Over best odds: 52 (-110) via bet365
- Under best odds: 52.5 (-110) via BetMGM
The only sportsbook offering this prop at a total lower than 52.5 is bet365. They're asking -110 for over 52, while our other best sports betting apps are asking for over 52.5.
At the time of writing, 57% of wagers are backing the Pver, so it's very likely that this total goes up before kickoff. If you want to get in on the Over, as I'm suggesting, get in as soon as possible.
How to watch Michigan State vs. Oregon
- When: Friday, Oct. 4
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 63 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 3 mph SE
- Favorite: Oregon -23.5 (-110 via Caesars)
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