Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep. 30
Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep. 30

The New York Mets (+125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-150) on Monday, September 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:40pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Mets are 88-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 74-86 ATS.

Mets vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 4-5, 3.99 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 8-7, 3.47 ERA

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+27.00 Units / 338% ROI)
  • Jose Iglesias has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 22 games (+16.90 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+14.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Gio Urshela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+27.00 Units / 193% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 44 games (+25.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 40 games (+18.40 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.45 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+14.45 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 101 games (+20.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 102 games (+15.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 93 of their last 146 games (+39.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+3.65 Units / 5% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 82-78 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.01% ROI).

  • 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 3.59% ROI
  • 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -1.48% ROI
  • 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -6.79% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 74-86 against the Run Line (-16.05 Units / -8.26% ROI).

  • 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.45 Units / -8.18% ROI
  • 58-96 when betting on the total runs Over for -46.6 Units / -26.67% ROI
  • 96-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +32 Units / 18.03% ROI

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Marcell Ozuna (ATL)
0.5 +350 0.5 -450

Mark Vientos (NYM)
0.5 +450 0.5 -650

Francisco Lindor (NYM)
0.5 +500 0.5 -700

Matt Olson (ATL)
0.5 +500 0.5 -700

Jorge Soler (ATL)
0.5 +500 0.5 -700

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Marcell Ozuna (ATL)
0.5 -275 0.5 +200

Francisco Lindor (NYM)
0.5 -275 0.5 +200

Gio Urshela (ATL)
0.5 -275 0.5 +200

Brandon Nimmo (NYM)
0.5 -250 0.5 +180

Ozzie Albies (ATL)
0.5 -250 0.5 +180

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Marcell Ozuna (ATL)
0.5 +130 0.5 -175

Mark Vientos (NYM)
0.5 +160 0.5 -210

Matt Olson (ATL)
0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Jorge Soler (ATL)
0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Brandon Nimmo (NYM)
0.5 +170 0.5 -225

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL)
5.5 -160 5.5 +125

Tylor Megill (NYM)
5.5 +125 5.5 -165

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .413 (172 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: .323 — first Percentile.

Tylor Megill has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.1 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 88.2.

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .396 (207 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: .321 — fourth Percentile.

David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.1 MPH on the 172 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitless in 16 AB’s against Spencer Schwellenbach when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .207 — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has walked 4 of 180 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (11/42) against Spencer Schwellenbach this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — fifth Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed an OBP of just .230 (300 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .301 — 99th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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