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The winner of the first game of Monday's doubleheader between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will clinch one of the National League's two remaining wild card spots. Game 1 begins at 1:10 p.m. ET, with the Braves as short favorites at Truist Park.
- If the Mets and Braves split today's doubleheader, both teams clinch a playoff spot
- If either team sweeps the doubleheader, that team heads to the playoffs, while the Arizona Diamondbacks would get the other wild-card spot
- Atlanta's loss on Sunday snapped a five-game winning streak
Our Mets vs. Braves prediction makes the case for the favorites to clinch their playoff spot first behind a strong pitching performance from their starter.
Mets vs. Braves prediction
- Moneyline pick: Braves to win (-154 via FanDuel) ????
- Player prop bet: Spencer Schwellenbach Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125 via BetMGM) ???
- Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 RBIs (+140 via FanDuel) ???
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Mets vs. Braves Game 1?
First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET, Truist Park
Best odds: -154 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 60.63%
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The Braves have likely Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale locked and loaded for the second game of today's doubleheader in the event they lose the first game. But the confidence they are showing rookie Spencer Schwellenbach by pitching him in the first game says all you need to know about his ability while allowing them to potentially save Sale for tomorrow's Game 1 of the postseason.
Schwellenbach faced the Mets at home just six days ago. He allowed one earned run on three hits over seven brilliant innings. Schwellenbach induced a 28% CSW rate in that start with a fastball-heavy arsenal (he threw his fastball 44% of the time).
The Mets have won each of Tylor Megill's last five starts, but his splits against elite teams are concerning. New York is 2-5 in Megill's seven appearances against playoff-bound teams (Atlanta is included in that) this season, and he pitched to a 3.47 ERA in that span.
He also allowed multiple walks six times in those outings, and a loss to the Braves on July 27 was one of four games in which he allowed four or more earned runs this season.
Atlanta's implied probability to win this game is as high as 62.26% based on bet365's -165 odds. Braves backers will find the best return at FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $16.49.
Mets vs. Braves player props
Best odds: +125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 44.44%
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Schwellenbach's two starts against the Mets have been polar opposites in terms of strikeouts. On July 27, he recorded a season-high 12 strikeouts against the NL East rival, but struck out only four Mets in his last outing. That was one of six starts this season in which he recorded four or fewer strikeouts.
Schwellenbach had a seven-start stretch from late July to the end of August where he recorded seven-plus strikeouts in every start. However, he has five or fewer strikeouts in all five September starts, and with the Braves coaching staff treating this like a playoff game, the team will likely turn to the bullpen earlier than usual.
A winning $10 wager would net $12.50 in profits via our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS.
Best odds: +140 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 41.67%
Ozuna is on pace to bat over .300 and slug .833 or better for the third consec utive month. And he has had excellent career success against Megill, going 6-for-12 with two home runs.
Ozuna has been on fire down the stretch, slashing .310/.431/.524 over the last 15 days. With those numbers (which include two home runs) he should have much more than four RBIs in that span, so I expect positive regression in the RBI department against a pitcher who is on pace to allow a 42% hard-hit rate or higher for a third time in four seasons.
BetMGM offers +135 odds for this same wager, so the best value is at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $24 (including the stake).
Mets vs. Braves odds & game info
- When: Monday, Sept. 30
- First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Truist Park, Atlanta, Ga.
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Favorite: Braves (-155 via BetMGM)
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