The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) on Friday, September 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 91-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 83-76 ATS.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Martin Perez 5-5, 4.21 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 5-0, 3.71 ERA
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 49 games (+28.50 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+14.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 50 games (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 35 games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 39 games (+33.10 Units / 85% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+20.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+12.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 82 games (+19.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 78 away games (+15.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 63% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 103 games (+33.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 102 games (+19.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 94 games (+14.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+9.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 81-78 against the Run Line (+6.2 Units / 3.13% ROI).
- 91-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 3.4% ROI
- 82-73 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 1.29% ROI
- 73-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -18 Units / -10.21% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 83-76 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.05% ROI).
- 88-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 4.77% ROI
- 91-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +22.05 Units / 12.52% ROI
- 62-91 when betting on the total runs Under for -37.85 Units / -21.77% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson (ARI) |
0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) |
0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) |
0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake McCarthy (ARI) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) |
0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) |
0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) |
0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) |
0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) |
0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) |
0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) |
0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) |
0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) |
3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 51% of the time (602/1,181) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 15 innings — Mason Miller has the longest active streak at 26.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .235 (476 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 97th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has a strikeout rate of 41% (9 SO in 22 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 4th best among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 22% — 94th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Merrill Kelly changeup was August 31st. Hitters are 0 for their last 24 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Hunter Gaddis has the longest active streak at 29.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (288/474) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .135 (117-for-867) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .145 (17 GB hits out of 117 GBs) against Merrill Kelly with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 98th Percentile.