The Washington Commanders (2-1-0) visit State Farm Stadium to take on the Arizona Cardinals (1-2-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Glendale, AZ.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (+100).
The Commanders vs. Cardinals Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Cardinals Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Cardinals will win this game with 66.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 56.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Terry McLaurin has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Noah Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+3.70 Units / 68% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cardinals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
- James Conner has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- James Conner has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- James Conner has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Chris Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Kyler Murray has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Cardinals vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) |
58.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.10 Units / 37% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets:
- The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Cardinals have scored last in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.80 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders art 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 26.47% ROI).
- Commanders are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 86.15% ROI
- Commanders are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Commanders are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cardinals are 2-1 (+0.8 Units / 23.53% ROI).
- Cardinals are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -32.26% ROI
- Cardinals are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Cardinals are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Arizona Cardinals
The Commanders were 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders are 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders are 1-9 (.100) after a road win since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.
The Commanders are 2-7 (.222) at home since the 2022 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .548.
Arizona Cardinals: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Cardinals were winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.
The Cardinals are winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .710.
The Cardinals were winless (0-10) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
The Cardinals were 1-6 (.143) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have a third down conversion rate of 45.5% this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 61.3% this season — worst in NFL.