The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (1-2-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Indianapolis, IN.
The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Steelers vs. Colts Over/Under is 40 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Colts Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 56.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 56.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
- Najee Harris has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 away games (+5.50 Units / 97% ROI)
- Najee Harris has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.20 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 90% ROI)
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.20 Units / 38% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Colts vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| George Pickens (PIT) |
49.5 -130 | 49.5 -105 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) |
11.5 -115 | 11.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Colts vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) |
72.5 -115 | 72.5 -115 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) |
39.5 -115 | 39.5 -115 |
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored first in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers art 3-0 (+3 Units / 89.55% ROI).
- Steelers are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 92.41% ROI
- Steelers are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Steelers are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / ROI
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Colts are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -36.99% ROI
- Colts are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Colts are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Steelers are 7-2 (.778) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — 9th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed an average of 132.6 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Steelers are 9-2 (.818) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 42 s since the 2023 season — highest in NFL.
The Steelers were undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.
The Steelers were 8-2 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Colts are 3-5-1 (.333) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .730.
The Colts were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Colts were 9-5 (.643) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .505.
The Colts are winless (0-9) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .146.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have run just 36.7% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to run just 29.1% of plays in their territory this season — best in NFL.