The Navy Midshipmen (3-0) visit Protective Stadium to take on the UAB Blazers (1-2) on Sep. 28 in Birmingham, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Navy is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).
The Navy vs. UAB Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Navy vs UAB Prediction:
The winning team model predicts UAB will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Navy and UAB, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Navy vs UAB Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UAB will cover the spread with 59.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Navy Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Navy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Navy have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.80 Units / 15% ROI)
UAB Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- UAB has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- UAB have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- UAB has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- UAB have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- UAB have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.95 Units / 44% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Navy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Navy Player Prop Bets Today
- Eli Heidenreich has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brandon Chatman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Navy is 7-3 (.636) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .452
Navy is 3-6 (.300) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .452
Navy is 3-4 (.375) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .547
Navy is 5-2 (.714) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .598
UAB is 2-8 (.200) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .452
UAB is 3-10 (.231) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .422
UAB is 3-5 (.375) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .551
UAB is 1-8 (.111) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .444
UAB’s RBs have 43.0 receiving yards per game this season — 15th-best among FBS RBs. Navy’s defense has allowed 289.3 receiving yards per game this season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.
UAB has 68 receptions in 3 games (22.7 per game) this season — 30th-best among FBS skill players. Navy’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.