The Liberty Flames (4-0) visit Kidd Brewer Stadium to take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-2) on Sep. 28 in Boone, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Liberty is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Liberty vs. Appalachian State Over/Under is 62.5 total points.
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Liberty vs Appalachian State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Liberty and Appalachian State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Liberty vs Appalachian State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Appalachian State will cover the spread with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Appalachian State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Appalachian State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Appalachian State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+1.15 Units / 4% ROI)
- Appalachian State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- Appalachian State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.60 Units / 8% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Liberty players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Liberty Player Prop Bets Today
- Billy Lucas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Treon Sibley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Appalachian State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Appalachian State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Joey Aguilar has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Kaedin Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Eli Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Christan Horn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Kanye Roberts has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -75% ROI).
Appalachian State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Appalachian State is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
Liberty is 12-1 (.923) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .379
Liberty is 12-1 (.923) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .445
Liberty is 7-1 (.875) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .452
Liberty is undefeated (16-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .586
Appalachian State is 10-4 (.714) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .565
Appalachian State is 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .609
Appalachian State is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 10th-best in FBS; Average: .632