Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction, TNF Picks & Odds: Thursday Night Football

The Thursday Night Football odds are showing the Dallas Cowboys as the favorites in a road matchup with their NFC East rivals, the New York Giants.

The Cowboys also enter the affair ranked 10th in the Super Bowl odds, and Dallas receiver CeeDee Lamb sits third in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds.

• After losing three straight home games dating back to the playoffs last year, Dallas looks to get right in this road clash
• Two of the Cowboys' top four margin of victories last season were in the head-to-head matchups with the Giants
• The loser of this game will fall to sole possession of last place at 1-3 in the NFC East

Our Cowboys vs. Giants prediction is in line with the Cowboys vs. Giants early picks for this matchup, calling for Dallas to continue its dominance over its NFC East rival.

Best Cowboys vs. Giants picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Cowboys -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Giants ???
• Player prop: Rico Dowdle Over 8.5 rushing attempts (-140 via bet365) ????

Cowboys vs. Giants against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football

The Cowboys were as high as -5.5 on Monday morning at some of our best sports betting apps. But the line is now uniform across the board at -4.5, and I don't agree with that movement.

Dallas trailed the Baltimore Ravens 28-6 entering the fourth quarter last week. But the more significant reason for this line movement is how New York's opponents have been faring since playing the Giants.

For example, the Minnesota Vi kings (New York's Week 1 opponent) are one of five remaining unbeaten teams. The Giants' narrow Week 2 loss to the Commanders also suddenly doesn't look as bad after Washington beat the Cincinnati Bengals in a road Monday Night Football matchup during Week 3.

And the Giants needed to hold on for dear life to beat a Cleveland Browns team that's failed to score more than 18 points in any of its first three games for the first time since 2010. Additionally, Cleveland is off to its worst start (1-2) in five seasons under head coach Kevin Stefanski, who's not among the top 10 in the NFL Coach of the Year odds.

You don't need to be a football savant to know why Dallas has been struggling in back-to-back weeks. The Cowboys have allowed 464 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns during their two-game losing streak. They've also given up three rushing touchdowns in consecutive games for the first time in franchise history.

However, Dallas is facing a Giants team that recorded the third-fewest rushing yards from their running backs (45) in the Week 1 loss to the Vikings. And of their three running backs and quarterback Daniel Jones, only one player (Devin Singletary) has been averaging better than 3.5 yards per carry.

Perhaps I should have led with the fact that Dallas is 13-1 straight up in its last 14 games against New York, and the club won both of last year's matchups by a combined score of 89-17. 

Dak Prescott's success against NFC East teams includes more than just games against the Giants. He's 25-8 against the spread in divisional games as a favorite, with his team covering 73% of contests against NFC East opponents. 

The Cowboys also do well to avoid losing streaks, especially in games in which they're favored. Dallas is looking for its 12th straight win as a favorite in games following a loss. It's 10-1 ATS in its previous 11 road games after a defeat.

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the 4.5-point spread. But some like FanDuel charge juice as high as -115 to back the favorites. Thus, I'm taking advantage of the best price at BetMGM, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09 as part of your NFL Week 4 predictions.  

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Cowboys vs. Giants player prop

Not only have the Cowboys been poor at stopping the run, but they need to look long and hard at what can get their own running game going.

Dallas ranks 29th in rushing yards, yards per rush, and amount of 10-plus-yard rushes. However, with a positive game script much more likely than the last two weeks when the Cowboys fell into significant early holes against the New Orleans Saints and Ravens, Dallas should be leaning on the running game more Thursday.

Rico Dowdle's total touches (31) aren't much higher than Ezekiel Elliott's 24 through two games. But Elliott's workload has diminished from 10 touches in Week 1 to just three last week. As a result, Dowdle should go over this projected total for the first time this season, as he's logged eight or fewer carries every week to this point.

The implied probability for Dowdle no tching nine-plus carries in this game is as high as 60.78% based on DraftKings' -155 odds. Therefore, the best return on your investment is found at bet365, where a winning $10 wager would net $7.14 in profit.

Best odds: -140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 58.33%

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Cowboys vs. Giants odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Thursday Night Football game info

• Matchup: Cowboys vs. Giants
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET 
• Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• How to watch: Prime Video
• Weather: 72 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, 7-mph southerly winds
• Favorite: Cowboys (-225 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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