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Our college football Week 5 against the spread picks are full of AP Top 25 matchups, as we highlight the top games on the schedule in our Week 5 college football predictions.
- With Heisman Trophy odds as short as +500, Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss are poised for a blowout win in their opening SEC game
- One of the Group of Five favorites by the College Football Playoff odds, Liberty is set to run through a struggling Appalachian State team
- While Georgia vs. Alabama is the showdown between college football championship odds contenders, there's another top-10 team in a more advantageous position to bet on
Using odds from our best college football betting sites, we pick the top 20 games of the week against the spread.
College football ATS picks Week 5: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confiden ce based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech vs. Miami | Miami (-19.5) | ??? |
| Washington vs. Rutgers | Washington (+3) | ??? |
| Kentucky vs. Ole Miss | Ole Miss (-17.5) | ???? |
| Minnesota vs. Michigan | Michigan (-9.5) | ??? |
| Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State | Kansas State (-4.5) | ??? |
| BYU vs. Baylor | BYU (+3.5) | ???? |
| South Florida vs. Tulane | South Florida (+6) | ??? |
| Wisconsin vs. USC | USC (-16) | ???? |
| Louisville vs. Notre Dame | Notre Dame (-6) | ??? |
| Oklahoma vs. Auburn | Oklahoma (-1.5) | ???? |
| Colorado vs. UCF | UCF (-14) | ??? |
| Liberty vs. Appalachian State | Liberty (-3.5) | ???? |
| Mississippi State vs. Texas | Texas (-38.5) | ???? |
| Ohio S tate vs. Michigan State | Ohio State (-24.5) | ???? |
| Stanford vs. Clemson | Clemson (-22) | ??? |
| Georgia vs. Alabama | Georgia (-2) | ??? |
| Illinois vs. Penn State | Penn State (-18) | ???? |
| Washington State vs. Boise State | Boise State (-7.5) | ??? |
| Arizona vs. Utah | Utah (-12) | ??? |
| Oregon vs. UCLA | Oregon (-24) | ??? |
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My favorite ATS picks this week
College football picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
Lane Kiffin's team is 4-0 and has shown no signs of slowing down. It's beating teams by an average of 55 to 5.5, and its closest victory was a 34-point win on the road against Wake Forest.
With Dart at QB, Henry Parrish Jr. at running back, and the wide receiver duo of Tre Harris and Antwane Wells Jr., the Rebels are No. 1 in SP+ on offense. Ranking third in EPA per rush and fifth in EPA per dropback, they should expose a defense that gave up 31 to South Carolina.
Meanwhile, Kentucky has been sporadic on offense this season and is just 80th in EPA per dropback. With several future NFL players on its defense, Ole Miss will be harassing Wildcats QB Brock Vandagriff all afternoon.
If Ole Miss covers, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.
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Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%
This was supposed to be the game that ended up deciding which Group of Five team would nab a College Football Playoff spot. Instead, Appalachian State has been exposed on defense all season.
That's not going to stop against a Liberty offense that's 37th in SP+. With Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley, the Flames average 218.5 rushing yards per game and rank 35th in EPA per rush. Thanks to Jamey Chadwell's spread option offense, Liberty should run all over the Mountaineers.
App State is allowing 213.3 rushing yards per game and ranks 117th in EPA per rush on defense. It's not as if the Mountaineers offense has impressed either, sitting 111th in EPA per rush and 113th in EPA per dropback.
If the Flames win by 4-plus points, a bet pays a $9.52 profit.
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Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%
Illinois is ranked No. 19 because it beat a Kansas team that as it turns out isn't very good and a Nebraska team that probably shouldn't have been ranked. Coming off the OT win against the Cornhuskers, Illinois is in an obvious letdown spot.
The Illini are good, but they're not good enough to keep it close in a night game at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions have a devastating defense led by Abdul Carter that's fourth in SP+. Illinois' offense is 70th in SP+ and has struggled to run the ball consistently against Power 4 teams.
And for as solid as the Illini's defense has been, it's been a little iffy against the run – ranking 45th in EPA per rush. That opens the door for Nicholas Singleton to have a huge day on the ground.
A $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit if Penn State can win by more than 17.5 points.
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Here are our
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