The Minnesota Twins (-140) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Sunday, September 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 5:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Twins are against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are ATS.
Twins vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Zebby Matthews 1-3, 6.31 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 8-15, 4.21 ERA
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.60 Units / 232% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 34 games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 88 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+3.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) |
0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) |
0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) |
0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) |
0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) |
0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) |
0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) |
0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) |
0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) |
0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) |
0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) |
0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) |
0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) |
0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) |
6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) |
6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 25% (79/317) against Pablo Lopez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (135/386) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% (92/188) against Pablo Lopez in two-strike counts this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 83rd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 30% (226/745) against Pablo Lopez this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 84th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.011 (88 Total Bases / 87 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .590 — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .783 (307 Total Bases / 392 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .573 — 0 Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of 1.502 (108 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.033 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (58/177) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.