The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-115) on Saturday, September 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Phillies are 92-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 79-75 ATS.

Phillies vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 12-7, 3.16 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 11-5, 3.29 ERA

Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Mets and all games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in his last 13 away games (+13.00 Units / 59% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.80 Units / 295% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+11.80 Units / 69% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+11.05 Units / 92% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+21.70 Units / 310% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Sean Manaea has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.00 Units / 34% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 62 games (+18.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 95 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 away games (+7.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.35 Units / 30% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 49 games (+69.58 Units / 142% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 100% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 95 games (+20.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+15.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.75 Units / 27% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 76-78 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -2.47% ROI).

• 92-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 1.12% ROI
• 72-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.59% ROI
• 75-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -2.7% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 79-75 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 0.84% ROI).

• 85-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 3.71% ROI
• 77-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.12% ROI
• 70-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.45 Units / -8.12% ROI

Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (629/1,194) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (243/412) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .205 (16 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .367 — 99th Percentile.

25 of Ranger Suarez’s 105 breaking pitch strikeouts (24%) have been backdoor since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .187 (45-for-241) against Sean Manaea when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 94th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .231 (39 Total Bases / 169 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — 97th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has walked 29 of 270 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (922/1,929) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

  
Read Full Article