The Atlanta Braves (-200) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+165) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

This season, the Braves are 82-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 86-67 ATS.

Braves vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:

• Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 17-3, 2.38 ERA
• Reds starting pitcher: Julian Aguiar 2-0, 4.88 ERA

Braves vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Braves vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 66.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

• Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 15 away games (+25.60 Units / 171% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 36 games (+22.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+12.85 Units / 80% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jorge Soler has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.30 Units / 56% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 38 games (+25.95 Units / 68% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 50 games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 138 games (+34.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+14.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 26 away games (+13.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games at home (+15.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 135 games (+13.85 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+8.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.75 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 66 games at home (+7.25 Units / 10% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 70-82 against the Run Line (-15.75 Units / -8.54% ROI).

• 82-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.25 Units / -9.48% ROI
• 57-90 when betting on the total runs Over for -40.9 Units / -24.65% ROI
• 90-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +27.1 Units / 16.07% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 86-67 against the Run Line (+10 Units / 4.9% ROI).

• 74-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -2.64% ROI
• 71-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.62% ROI
• 74-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -2.5% ROI

Reds vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

32 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .247 (57 Total Bases / 231 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 98th Percentile.

Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 32% (219 SO in 681 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Chris Sale has allowed an OPS of just .494 (252 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .670 — 100th Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Julian Aguiar has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last three games dating back to September 2nd — Sean Manaea has the longest active streak at 7.

Julian Aguiar has a strikeout rate of just 17% (4 SO in 24 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 10th lowest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 25% — 19th Percentile.

Julian Aguiar has a strikeout rate of just 26% (8 SO in 31 PAs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.

Julian Aguiar has allowed an OPS of just .337 (28 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .716 — 96th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

  
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