The Toledo Rockets (3-0) visit Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium to take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Bowling Green, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Toledo vs. Western Kentucky Over/Under is 62.5 total points.
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Toledo vs Western Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 52.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Western Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Toledo vs Western Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Western Kentucky will cover the spread with 74.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Western Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Toledo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Toledo Player Prop Bets Today
- Jerjuan Newton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- Jacquez Stuart has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Junior Vandeross III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Western Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Western Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Elijah Young has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Dalvin Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Toledo is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 37.67% ROI
- Toledo is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Toledo is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Western Kentucky is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Western Kentucky is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Toledo is undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .636
Toledo is undefeated (9-0) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .414
Toledo is 11-1 (.688) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .387
Toledo is 9-1 (.750) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .613
Western Kentucky is 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– 9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .636
Western Kentucky is 12-6 (.632) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .508
Western Kentucky is 14-6 (.700) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– 34th-best in FBS; Average: .566
Western Kentucky is 11-7 (.579) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .446
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 899 passing yards in 3 games (299.7 YPG) this season — 26th-best among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed 246.3 passing yards per game this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 4,765 passing yards in 16 games (297.8 YPG) since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 194.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.