The Arizona State Sun Devils (3-0) visit Jones AT&T Stadium to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Lubbock, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Texas Tech is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Arizona State vs. Texas Tech Over/Under is 60.5 total points.
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Arizona State vs Texas Tech Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas Tech will win this game with 59.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arizona St and Texas Tech, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arizona State vs Texas Tech Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas Tech will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arizona State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arizona State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+11.80 Units / 91% ROI)
- Arizona State have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Arizona State have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Arizona State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
Texas Tech Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas Tech has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.65 Units / 32% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arizona State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Arizona State Player Prop Bets Today
- Trenton Bourguet has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.15 Units / 96% ROI)
- Xavier Guillory has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Trenton Bourguet has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Sam Leavitt has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.20 Units / 120% ROI)
- Troy Omeire has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas Tech players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texas Tech Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Behren Morton has hit the Passing Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tahj Brooks has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Behren Morton has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Coy Eakin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Arizona State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arizona St is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Arizona State is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 55.56% ROI
- Arizona State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Arizona State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Texas Tech Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas Tech is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.15 Units / -34.85% ROI).
- Texas Tech is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -1.01% ROI
- Texas Tech is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Texas Tech is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Arizona State is 1-6 (.091) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .365
Arizona State is 1-14 (.053) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .364
Arizona State is 2-10 (.167) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2022 season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .390
Arizona State is 1-9 (.091) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .399
Texas Tech is 6-2 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .441
Texas Tech is 4-1 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .497
Texas Tech is 10-2 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2022 season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .639
Texas Tech is 10-6 (.588) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .380
Texas Tech’s WRs has gained 3,304 yards on 280 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 WRs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Texas Tech has gained 3,984 yards on 373 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-14th-worst among FBS skill players. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.