The Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-1) visit Jack Trice Stadium to take on the Iowa State Cyclones (2-0) on Sep. 21 in Ames, IA. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00pm EDT.
Iowa St. is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-110).
The Arkansas State vs. Iowa State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Arkansas State vs Iowa State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Iowa State will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas St and Iowa St., key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Iowa State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 72.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Iowa State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Iowa State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+8.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Iowa State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arkansas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Arkansas State Player Prop Bets Today
- Corey Rucker has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Courtney Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jaylen Raynor has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Iowa State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Iowa State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Rocco Becht has hit the TD Passes Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.55 Units / 82% ROI)
- Rocco Becht has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jaylin Noel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Jayden Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Abu Sama III has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 11.3% ROI
- Arkansas State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.15 Units / -35.94% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.85 Units / 25% ROI
Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Iowa St. is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.76% ROI).
- Iowa State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 120% ROI
- Iowa State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Iowa State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Arkansas State is winless (0-6) when losing at least one fumble since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .393
Arkansas State is undefeated (6-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .613
Arkansas State is 6-2 (.600) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .430
Arkansas State is 6-3 (.600) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .495
Iowa State is 5-1 (.833) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408
Iowa State is 5-1 (.714) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .422
Iowa State is 5-1 (.714) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .526
Iowa State is undefeated (6-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .467
Iowa State’s TEs has 5 receptions in 2 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed just 15.0 receptions per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Iowa State’s TEs has 62 receptions in 15 games (4.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.