The Houston Cougars (1-2) visit Nippert Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Cincinnati, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Cincinnati is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Houston vs. Cincinnati Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Houston vs Cincinnati Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Cincinnati will win this game with 65.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Houston and Cincinnati, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Houston vs Cincinnati Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Cincinnati will cover the spread with 65.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Houston Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Houston have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Houston have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Houston have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Cincinnati Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.20 Units / 3% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Houston players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Houston Player Prop Bets Today
- Joseph Manjack IV has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Donovan Smith has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Parker Jenkins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Donovan Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Donovan Smith has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Cincinnati players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cincinnati Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Corey Kiner has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 95% ROI)
- Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Houston is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.95 Units / 29.23% ROI).
- Houston is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -35.48% ROI
- Houston is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Houston is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Cincinnati is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Cincinnati is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -9.09% ROI
- Cincinnati is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Cincinnati is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Houston is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .324
Houston is 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .403
Houston is 2-7 (.167) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .346
Houston is 2-7 (.222) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .497
Cincinnati is winless (0-7) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408
Cincinnati is winless (0-7) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .407
Cincinnati is 3-6 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .497
Cincinnati is 4-9 (.267) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-27th-worst in FBS; Average: .517
Cincinnati’s offense has thrown for 867 passing yards in 3 games (289.0 YPG) this season — T-30th-best among FBS offenses. Houston’s defense has allowed just 123.7 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati’s QBs has thrown for 867 passing yards in 3 games (289.0 YPG) this season — T-30th-best among FBS teams. Houston’s defense has allowed just 123.7 passing yards per game this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.