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The Sun Belt Conference opener between South Alabama and Appalachian State is a standalone game. It is the only FBS college football game on the Thursday slate in Week 4, as we get our Week 4 college football predictions underway.
On paper, this appears a bit of a mismatch, considering the Mountaineers were the near-unanimous pick (they received 12 of the 14 first-place votes) to win the Sun Belt East Division, while the Jaguars were picked to finish fifth in the West.
However, our South Alabama vs. Appalachian State prediction expects the Jaguars to cover this big spread, as they are undervalued based on last season's 7-6 record.
Best South Alabama vs. Appalachian State picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: South Ala bama +8 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Appalachian State ???
- Player prop pick: Kaedin Robinson anytime touchdown scorer (-110 via Caesars) ????
South Alabama vs. Appalachian State against the spread prediction: Week 4
South Alabama vs. Appalachian opening odds:
- South Alabama: +7.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Appalachian State: -7.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
South Alabama may have finished with a 4-4 conference record last year, but it proved it can compete with the best teams in the Sun Belt and the top programs in the country.
The Jaguars beat a No. 16-ranked Oklahoma State team 33-7 (they led 23-0 at halftime) and held eventual Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II to 25 total yards on five touches. South Alabama also beat Eastern Michigan (who finished third in the MAC West) by 49 points, shut out a six-win Marshall tea m 28-0, and many of the same players are back from a team that lost to nine-win UCLA and 12-win Troy by a combined five points in 2022.
If not for a 1-4 record in one-score games last year, oddsmakers would likely be looking a lot more favorably on the Jaguars instead of instilling them as more than seven-point underdogs.
Appalachian State led all teams with seven Preseason First Team All-Sun Belt selections, including last year's Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year, Joey Aguilar, who set several single-season school passing records.
But new South Alabama head coach Major Applewhite hit the transfer portal hard to replace starters on offensive and defensive units that ranked 110th or worse in returning production percentage.
In addition, despite Appalachian State being the East Division representative in the conference championship game last year, South Alabama had the higher Defensive S P+ and Overall SP+ ranking at the end of last season.
As I had said in my South Alabama vs. Appalachian State early leans, I would play the Jaguars at anything more than a touchdown. DraftKings is one of the few top sports betting sites to get to -8 so far this week, and that extra half-point compared to all the other sportsbooks at -7.5 is a great value, especially at the standard -110 juice (the line came down from -112 yesterday). A $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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South Alabama vs. Appalachian State prop pick for Week 4
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In a game with an O/U of 63.5 points, it is wise to get some involvement with anytime touchdown scorer props. I am targeting the Appalachian State passing attack with this wager, especially after senior Joey Aguilar set school records in passing yards (3,757), passing touchdowns (33), total offense (4,002 yards), passing attempts (460), and completions (293) last season.
Robinson's 60% implied probability to cash this wager based on bet365's -150 odds suggests he is due for positive regression in the touchdown department. His 67 catches last year were nearly double his next-closest teammate, Christan Horn's 36 catches, and Robinson paid off those targets for a team-high 10 touchdowns (no other Mountaineers receiver had more than six).
Robinson once again leads the team in receptions (18) and receiving yards (290) but has yet to find the endzone through two games, and this four-star play comes with the confidence that he will find paydirt on Thursday.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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South Alabama vs. Appalachian State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
South Alabama vs. Appalachian State game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 19
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, N.C.
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 63 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph NW
- Favorite: Appalachian State (-275 via BetMGM)
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