The Minnesota Twins (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Monday, September 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Twins are 79-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 76-74 ATS.

Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 15-8, 3.92 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 2-1, 2.16 ERA

Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+15.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.05 Units / 38% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+13.50 Units / 135% ROI)
• Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.40 Units / 52% ROI)
• Edouard Julien has hit the Walks Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 54% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+15.50 Units / 155% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.80 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.80 Units / 30% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 83 games (+14.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 away games (+1.10 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 away games (+0.55 Units / 4% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+12.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 86 of their last 150 games (+11.22 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 68 games at home (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.85 Units / 21% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 68-81 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -9.23% ROI).

• 79-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.05 Units / -4.72% ROI
• 76-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.8 Units / 2.95% ROI
• 65-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.85 Units / -11.55% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 76-74 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 2.38% ROI).

• 86-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.22 Units / 5.76% ROI
• 67-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.85 Units / -8.96% ROI
• 74-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.21% ROI

Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .132 (14-for-106) against Pablo Lopez’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — 97th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (232/646) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (132/379) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 27% (223 SO in 833 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 87th Percentile.

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Matthew Boyd has a strikeout rate of 39% (7 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 94th Percentile.

Matthew Boyd has a strikeout rate of 33% (15 SO in 45 PAs) this month (2 games) — tied for 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 92nd Percentile.

Matthew Boyd has thrown his changeup 35% of the time (47/134) against right-handed batters this month (2 games) — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 94th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (32/89) against Matthew Boyd this month (2 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 96th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

  
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