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Week 3 of the college football season is here, and the loaded slate offers an exciting blend of non-conference action and league play, all of which we're diving straight into this week.
Will we see an AP top-10 team lose to an unranked squad for the third consecutive week after Florida State lost in Weeks 0 and 1 and Notre Dame lost as a 29-point favorite last week?
The upsets are certainly beginning to pile up, as double-digit favorites won 89 of their first 92 games through the first two weeks, then a whopping nine double-digit favorites lost in Week 2.
Our college football predictions and best bets for Week 3 stand in the face of those upsets by backing a double-digit favorite in a ranked vs. ranked matchup.
We're also making the case for two of the top running backs in the country to enjoy varying levels of success, and that's just a taste of what you'll find with our college football predictions for Week 3.
Best college football bets for Week 3
College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Chez Mellusi Under 43.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) vs. Alabama ????
- Ollie Gordon II Over 114.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) vs. Tulsa ????
- Cincinnati-Miami OH Over 46 (-112 via DraftKings) ???
- Missouri -16 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Boston College ????
Week 3 college football odds & schedule
(Odds via BetMGM)
- Arizona (+7) vs. Kansas State (-7), Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Alabama (-16.5) vs. Wisconsin (+16.5), Saturday at noon
- Boston College (+16.5) vs. Missouri (-16.5), Saturday at 12:45 p.m. ET
- Oregon (-16.5) vs. Oregon State (+16.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Ole Miss (-22.5) vs. Wake Forest (+22.5), Saturday at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Georgia (-24.5) vs. Kentucky (+24.5), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
College football player props for Week 3
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
This might seem like a curiously low rushing total for Mellusi, who carried the ball at least 16 times for 60 or more yards in both games this season. He also went Over this total in three of four games when healthy last year.
However, that shows the respect our best sports betting sites have for an Alabama defense that returned five of its top six defensive linemen and its top two linebackers from last season.
I expect the Crimson Tide to stack the box against Wisconsin, forcing Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke to beat them. He's failed to prove he can do with two big-time throws and a 6.5 yards per attempt average against two weaker opponents thus far.
The best value is at bet365, as a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.70.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Oklahoma State survived Arkansas' upset bid last week, narrowly escaping in double overtime, despite being outgained 648-385.
The Cowboys aren't likely to instill many game plans going forward in whch they attempt 48 passes and just 26 runs, especially when they have last year's Doak Walker Award winner in Ollie Gordon II on their roster.
Gordon inexplicably received just 17 carries last week, so I expect head coach Mike Gundy to feed the stud out of the backfield early and often.
Gordon's massive -225 odds to score multiple touchdowns at bet365 suggests he is in for a huge day on the ground, and this is a confident four-star play, as he surpassed this total in 10 of the last 12 games prior to last week.
Caesars has a slightly higher total for Gordon at 115.5 yards, so the best number and price is at FanDuel. A winning $10 wager returns $8.77 in profit.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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College football game predictions for Week 3
The total for this in-state rivalry between the Bearcats and RedHawks ticked up a half-point from an opening number of 46 at most of our best sports betting apps.
I agree with that line movement, especially considering Miami is undervalued as one of five FBS teams with no passing touchdowns through two weeks, which is misleading considering it has played just one game.
Cincinnati is still stinging from blowing a 27-6 lead with 4:50 remaining in the third quarter last week (it lost 28-27), which was Pittsburgh's largest comeback win since 1971.
However, after punting on their first possession, the Bearcats impressively scored on five of their next six drives, with a missed 25-yard field goal sprinkled in.
I expect Cincinnati to learn from last week's mistakes and not take its foot off the gas in this matchup, which will also force Miami to play more aggressively than it did in a 13-6 slugfest against Northwestern.
The extra juice to back the Over of 46 at DraftKings is worth it with all other best sportsbooks at 46.5. A winning $10 wager would pay out $18.93.
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
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I have all the respect in the world for Bill O'Brien and think he was a slam-dunk hire for Boston College. But to rank the Eagles in the top 25 after upsetting Florida State, which may not turn out to be very good this year, is giving them too much credit.
Also, Boston College benefitted from poor quarterback play in the win when D.J. Uiagalelei finished with a 31.0 QBR, and I expect the Eagles to be ambushed by Missouri's talent and speed in this road matchup.
Missouri is one of six SEC teams in the top-seven of the AP poll, and rightfully so, after finishing last season as one of four teams in the conference that ranked in the top 14 in both offensive and defensive SP+ (that includes Texas, a new SEC member).
The Tigers are scary at their best, as they beat two SP+ top-15 teams (Tennessee and Ohio State) by 40 combined points at the end of last season, and Boston College doesn't figure to provide as much resistance in comparison.
Three of our sites with the best sportsbook promos are all a half-point higher at Missouri -16.5, so I am grabbing the extra value at Caesars, as a winning $10 wager would return $9.09 in profits.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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