The Philadelphia Phillies (-250) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+200) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 83-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 65-74 ATS.
Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 11-6, 3.04 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Adam Oller 1-1, 3.31 ERA
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 77.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 away games (+12.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 44 games (+12.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+11.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+11.00 Units / 122% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 47 games (+32.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+20.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+19.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+18.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 44 games (+18.05 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+12.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 68 of their last 124 games (+6.70 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 away games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 71 games at home (+28.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 47 games (+18.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 44 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 69-70 against the Run Line (-3.2 Units / -1.89% ROI).
- 83-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 1.07% ROI
- 64-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.35 Units / -8.06% ROI
- 69-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -1.15% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 65-74 against the Run Line (-29.46 Units / -16.2% ROI).
- 52-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.95 Units / -11.66% ROI
- 75-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.75 Units / 7.65% ROI
- 58-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.4 Units / -15.36% ROI
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
Adam Oller (MIA) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (134/232) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (232/388) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
25 of Ranger Suarez’s 100 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) have been backdoor since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (987/1,830) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Oller has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .312 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (6-for-40) against Adam Oller over the last 14 days — 5th best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 91st Percentile.
Adam Oller has not walked any of the 18 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Adam Oller has a strike rate of just 59% (110/185) in his last two starts — 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.