Red Sox vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep. 2
Red Sox vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep. 2

The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-125) on Monday, September 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Red Sox are 70-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 68-69 ATS.

Red Sox vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 12-6, 4.70 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 9-6, 3.94 ERA

Red Sox vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 40 games (+32.80 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 21 away games (+19.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Brayan Bello has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Masataka Yoshida has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.05 Units / 47% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 41 games (+24.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+18.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+12.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Mark Vientos has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+10.70 Units / 97% ROI)

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 65 away games (+14.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 away games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 65 away games (+11.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 137 games (+5.45 Units / 3% ROI)

  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 78 games (+14.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+13.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 89 games (+12.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 63-74 against the Run Line (-18.75 Units / -10.38% ROI).

  • 70-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -2.37% ROI
  • 70-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.35 Units / 2.9% ROI
  • 60-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.4 Units / -10.98% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 68-69 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -3.22% ROI).

  • 73-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 0.79% ROI
  • 67-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -2.56% ROI
  • 64-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -5.99% ROI

Mets vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +375 0.5 -500
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Pete Alonso (NYM) 0.5 +500 0.5 -750

Mets vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jarren Duran (BOS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) 0.5 -210 0.5 +155

Mets vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Mark Vientos (NYM) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Pete Alonso (NYM) 0.5 +175 0.5 -225
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Jarren Duran (BOS) 0.5 +190 0.5 -250

Mets vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brayan Bello (BOS) 5.5 -150 5.5 +115
Luis Severino (NYM) 6.5 +110 6.5 -140

Opponents are hitting .258 (136-for-528) against Brayan Bello this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 16th Percentile.

Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .360 (225 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (54/185) against Brayan Bello this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (223/375) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (48 Total Bases / 81 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — sixth Percentile.

Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (271/644) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of just 18% (43 SO in 232 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 16th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .202 (43-for-213) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 89th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

  
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