Boston College vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds, 9-2: Week 1

Only one ACC team lost to Florida State by fewer than a touchdown last season, and it was Boston College.

After a game where a little-known QB almost knocked off a college football championship odds favorite, and in my Boston College vs. Florida State prediction, I'm expecting Thomas Castellanos to cause issues for the Seminoles again.

With the game set for Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida State is a 16.5-point favorite across our top college football betting sites.

But regardless of the outcome, our Week 1 college football predictions expect points to be scored.

Best Boston College vs. Florida State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Over 49.5 (-11 0 via FanDuel) ????
• Player prop: Thomas Castellanos Over 56.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ????

Boston College vs. Florida State prediction: Week 1

When these two teams played early last season, Florida State was ranked No. 3 and nearly blew a 21-point lead. In the end, the Seminoles won 31-29 in one of the best ACC games of the year.

That game also showed Florida State's biggest weakness: its run defense.

Coming off last week's Week 0 loss in Dublin, it's clear the Seminoles still have issues stopping the run, which is why Boston College should be able to score enough to help this Over hit.

Last season, the Eagles were seventh in the country in EPA per rush while Florida State's defense was just 83rd in EPA per rush. And despite Mike Norvell's efforts in the transfer portal this offseason, Georgia Tech showed that this defense can be scored on.

Clearly Florida State's offense wasn't ready for its Week 0 game, but it did have its moments. On their opening drive, the Seminoles offensive line dominated on the way to the end zone.

Back home in Tallahassee with weather not being a factor, Florida State's offense – specifically DJ Uiagalelei – should look a lot better against Boston College.

With a defensive-minded head coach last season, the Eagles were 119th in EPA per pass on defense and 77th in SP+. And they lost a lot of their key players, ranking 83rd in returning production on defense, on top of having a new coaching staff.

Uiagalelei, Roydell Williams, Malik Benson, and Lawrance Toafili should be able to exploit this defense and score enough for this Over to hit. If it does, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Boston College vs. Florida State player prop

There aren't many more electric runners at the QB position than Castellanos. His 568 rushing yards after contact ranked fourth among quarterbacks last season and his 50 forced missed tackles ranked second, per PFF. 

Last year, Castellanos ran for Over 56.5 yards in nine of 13 games, including a 95-yard performance against the Seminoles.

By season's end, it was clear his running ability was the X-factor for BC. He averaged 13.4 carries over the first five games and 18.5 over the final eight games.

Even with Bill O'Brien now the Eagles' head coach, Castellanos should see enough work as a runner to hit the Over, which pays an $8.77 profit on a $10 bet.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Boston College vs. Florida State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Boston College vs. Florida State game info

• When: Monday, Sept. 2
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where:< /b> Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 90 degrees, 6-mph winds, 10% chance of precipitation
• Favorite: Florida State -16.5 (-112 via DraftKings)