The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-160) on Friday, August 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Pirates are 62-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 66-68 ATS.

Pirates vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 6-7, 4.26 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 11-8, 3.63 ERA

Pirates vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Yasmani Grandal has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+23.90 Units / 184% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+14.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+10.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 49 games (+22.50 Units / 46% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+18.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 94 games (+14.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 42 away games (+3.05 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.90 Units / 18% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games at home (+10.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 61 games at home (+7.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.45 Units / 16% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 73-60 against the Run Line (+9.66 Units / 5.61% ROI).

• 62-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -7.01% ROI
• 64-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -4.44% ROI
• 64-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.57 Units / -3.83% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 66-68 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.06% ROI).

• 76-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.22 Units / 5.4% ROI
• 65-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -2.4% ROI
• 62-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -6.5% ROI

Guardians vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (53/163) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (38/252) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (355/811) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (40/120) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

13 of Ben Lively’s 35 breaking pitch strikeouts (37%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 99th Percentile.

Ben Lively has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.

Ben Lively has a strikeout rate of just 14% (16 SO in 116 PAs) this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (171/920) against Ben Lively this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

  
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