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We're only a week away from celebrating the adult version of Christmas, with the 2024 NFL regular season set to commence.
That's when we'll start to see whether the Super Bowl odds favorites live up to lofty expectations while honing in on which middle-of-the-pack teams can elevate.
Our best NFL betting sites are showing the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers sitting pretty atop the oddsboards.
Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, and New England Patriots are rooted to the foot of the totem pole, hoping to prove analysts, pundits, and oddsmakers wrong.
But how do each team's Super Bowl odds correlate to their ranking entering the regular season?
With the Week 1 odds showing only one home spread underdog, let's dive into our power rankings.
Power rank ings and Super Bowl odds
Statistics provided by PFF.com, ftnfantasy.com, and Pro-Football Reference unless otherwise stated.
Best Super Bowl odds: +30000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.33%
The Panthers made improvements offensively, acquiring wide receiver Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers and drafting Xavier Legette with the 32nd pick.
New head coach Dave Canales is a more highly regarded offensive mind than former head coach Frank Reich, but that's not saying a whole lot. The team bolstered its offensive line to better protect Bryce Young, who endured a horrendous rookie season.
A defense that last season ranked 25th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) hasn't improved, and edge defender Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu depart departed. The club's veteran additions aren't good enough to o ffset those losses.
It looks like another abject season for the toothless Panthers.
Best Super Bowl odds: +30000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 0.33%
Remember when the Patriots were elite? Maybe Tom Brady will remind us in his debut season as FOX's No. 1 draft pick.
Head coach Jerod Mayo named Jacoby Brissett the Patriots' quarterback starter for Week 1.
That's probably good news for Drake Maye, who may have experienced recurring nightmares after lining up behind one of the league's worst offensive lines.
For the preservation of his sanity, confidence, and long-term health, Maye observing from the sideline for a few weeks isn't a bad thing. Especially since this team will lose way more than it will win regardless of who lines up behind center.
< b>Best Super Bowl odds: +15000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.66%
The Titans ranked 18th in DVOA last season and 25th in offensive DVOA. Overall, they had the 28th-ranked defense, according to PFF.com.
Will Levis has been given the keys to the backfield.
The second-year quarterback was 3-6 last season and ranked 37th out of 39 in turnover-worthy play percentage. He must protect the ball better in 2024 for the Titans to improve upon last year's 6-11 record.
Dennard Wilson, who has never been responsible for play calling in the NFL, takes charge as the new defensive coordinator.
Even without his inexperience, I feel they're lackluster on both sides of the ball and will struggle in a fairly competitive AFC South.
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Best Super Bowl odds: +20000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 0.50%
Tommy DeVito, AKA Tommy Cutlets, made the 53-man roster, so there's nothing for the G-Men to worry about. Yeah right.
If only the Italian stallion had the talent to go along with his ultra-cool narrative.
Unfortunately, this is a team led by Daniel Jones, who was woeful even before tearing his ACL last season.
Not only is a subpar and exorbitantly overpaid quarterback leading the charge, but their most dangerous and explosive offensive option, Saquon Barkley, took off for Philly.
Unless Malik Nabers becomes the city's immediate savior, I can't get behind the Giants offense, ranked 31st last season, scoring the third-fewest points per game (15.6).
The defense is good but nowhere elite enough to offset one of the league's worst offenses.
Best Super Bowl odds: +30000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 0.33%
Cue the Bo Nix era in Denver.
The No. 12 draft pick out of Oregon and one of the four quarterback first-round draft picks taking center stage was outstanding in two preseason appearances.
That places a slightly shinier veneer on a Denver Broncos team that will still be bad.
A decent offensive line and an underwhelming receiving corps don't make for a dynamic offense, even if their new quarterback has arrived in the Nix of time.
Their defense, which ranked second-last overall last season (60), isn't much better. It ranked third-last in DVOA and didn't improve during the offseason.
Poor, poor Patrick Surtain II, who, as one of the league's best corners, wil l probably feel isolated and alone, not dissimilar to Tom Hanks in “Castaway.”
Best Super Bowl odds: +12500 via Caesars | Implied probability: 0.79%
If only Marvin Harrison Jr. could play every position on both sides of the ball.
Harrison Jr., among the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds favorites, should have an unforgettable rookie campaign.
But that won't be enough to pull the Cardinals out of the doldrums.
Ranked seventh worst offensively last season (67.8), the Cardinals were 21st in Offensive DVOA. However, the offense improved considerably when Kyler Murray returned from injury (13th in DVOA).
While the offense should be decent, the defense will struggle mightily.
It had the third-fewest sacks last season (33) and recently lost second-year outside linebacker BJ Ojulari to a season-ending knee injury.
Ouch on two accords, the injury and the state of the team's defense, which ranked last overall (50.9) and had the worst DVOA.
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Best Super Bowl odds: +15000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 0.66%
A lack of pass rushers, a second-rate secondary, and one of the more feeble offensive lines dim an otherwise luminous light following the arrival of Jayden Daniels.
The rookie passer and new head coach Dan Quinn look to expedite the Commanders' transitional stage. But the team lacks talent at many pivotal positions and will suffer accordingly.
Washington fielded the third-worst overall defense (62) last season with the second-worst DVOA.
The offense will be better than last season's 26th DVOA ranking, but not enough to make waves in one of the league's most competitive divisions.
Best Super Bowl odds: +10000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 0.99%
The Saints' only saving grace is the division in which they reside.
However, the NFC South is much stronger than last season following the Atlanta Falcons' palpable improvement at critical positions.
Derek Carr, 33, is an average and aging signal-caller. And the Saints' defense doesn't scare anyone with its anemic pass rush.
Opposing quarterbacks last season held the ball for 3.07 seconds on average before releasing when the Saints rushed four or fewer, the second longest duration.
Best Super Bowl odds: +10000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 0.99%
While it's Gardner Minshew's team entering the regular season, neither quarterback dazzled during preseason.
Rookie tight end Brock Bowers is the only exciting addition (sorry, Gardner) to an offense that was graded the 17th best and sat 27th in DVOA last season.
Maxx Crosby, who's among the Defensive Player of the Year odds favorites, and new addition Christian Wilkins are the backbone of last year's ninth-best overall defense.
A regression could be coming though, as the Raiders' defense last season benefitted from the second-best injury luck and faced the opposing No. 1 quarterback on just 62.1% of snaps, the fourth-lowest rate.
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Best Super Bowl odds: +10000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 0.99%
A grotesque run game that averaged a league-worst 3.4 yards per attempt let down a pretty good offense.
An improved offensive line and the addition of fourth-round pick Bucky Irving, who impressed during the preseason, should bolster the rushing offense.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin also lead an accomplished receiving corps, so that's promising.
But both sides of the ball were middling last season, and I don't expect enough improvement to get the Buccaneers into the top 20.
Best Super Bowl odds: +10000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 0.99%
The Minnesota Vikings must rely on Sam Darnold after J.J. McCarthy's campaign ended before it started.
Minnesota isn't without elite talent and top-tier playmakers, but it will be a gigantic uphill battle in arguably the league's best division.
Justin Jefferson is healthy and will invariably elevate Darnold's level, while the expectations for No. 17 draft pick Dallas Turner on defense are higher than Snoop Dogg in his prime.
If Darnold rises up and Turner remains among the Defensive Rookie of the Year odds favorites, the Vikings could climb the ladder.
Best Super Bowl odds: +7500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.32%
More questions are coming out of Indy than an inquisitive and eager student in a three-hour lecture.
Can Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor stay off the treatment table? And will the second-year gunslinger showcase his no-ceiling skill set while mitigating mistakes?
And how will highly touted edge rus her Laiatu Latu perform in his rookie campaign against the best O-linemen?
While the upside of the Indianapolis Colts is exciting, the downside and potential for injury are too prevalent to ignore.
Best Super Bowl odds: +5000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.96%
Russell Wilson will start Week 1 after being named QB1 over Justin Fields.
I don't love Wilson's body of work since leaving Seattle. Then again, not many will pump the veteran's tires after taking 45 sacks in 15 starts with the Broncos last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers made the best out of a terrible situation last campaign, making the playoffs despite a woeful passing attack.
They were 27th in first-half scoring in 2023, but an outrageously good 9-2 record in one-score games saved them. T.J. Watt, the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year winner, led a defense that was ranked sixth in DVOA.
Linebacker Patrick Queen, who was signed during the offseason, will make an already elite defense even better. But I don't hold enough confidence in Wilson or the offense to rank the Steelers higher.
Best Super Bowl odds: +8000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 1.23%
The Seattle Seahawks are a real wild card under first-year coach and defensive specialist Mike Macdonald.
The former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator takes the reins of a team that produced the 28th-ranked defensive DVOA and the 12th-ranked offensive DVOA.
I expect Macdonald to get the best from his defense, improving the unit substantially in the process. Rookie defensive tackle and No. 16 draft pick Byron Murphy will bolster the line.
The offense boast s a bunch of playmakers with Geno Smith leading the way, including DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Kenneth Walker III is as dynamic as he is explosive, and Smith shows bravery and poise in the pocket. This team could do some damage if the stars align.
Best Super Bowl odds: +4500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 2.17%
All hail Jim Harbaugh!
The quirky, enigmatic head coach is a superb motivator. But he's not a magician, although he might tout himself as one. Despite his self-perceived sorcery, the Chargers' roster isn't good enough to crack the top 15.
Justin Herbert missed most of the preseason while recovering from a plantar fascia issue, and his receiving corps lacks top-end talent and consistent big-play potential.
Edge rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa form formi dable front line, but rest of the defense, which finished 26th in DVOA last season, leaves a lot to be desired.
The Chargers need a year under Harbaugh's tutelage to start rubbing shoulders with the NFL's top dawgs.
Best Super Bowl odds: +6500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.52%
A down year from Trevor Lawrence, much of which was due to various minor ailments, and a 15th-overall defensive grade contributed to the Jacksonville Jaguars missing the playoffs last season.
Their 1-5 implosion down the stretch resigned Doug Pederson's team to a premature offseason.
The Jaguars were a turnover machine last season, another factor contributing to a subpar 2023 campaign. The offense fumbled 16 times, the second most leaguewide.
Lawrence looked good in preseason and should bounce back. Addition ally, the Jaguars' defense posted the 10th-ranked DVOA last year thanks primarily to an excellent pass rush, a level it should sustain.
And I can't see them unraveling like a spool of yarn in successive seasons. A playoff berth is feasible, if not probable.
Best Super Bowl odds: +4000 via bet365 | Implied probability: 2.44%
Oh, the Cleveland Browns. The team with more unfulfilled potential than an Ivy League dropout.
An ownership group that put its faith in, and money behind, Deshaun Watson has let down one of the deepest and most talented rosters.
Unless Watson can stay healthy and awaken from a two-year slumber, the Browns will once again fail to live up to expectations while remaining one of the teams never to win a Super Bowl with the best odds.
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Best Super Bowl odds: +4000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 2.44%
Even without being featured in Hard Knocks, the Chicago Bears would be one of the most talked about teams. Williams has created more hype in the Windy City than Aaron Rodgers when he landed in New York to join the Jets.
Chicago has gone all out to create the best environment for Williams, who gets one of the NFL's best receiver trios at his disposal.
Keenan Allen, fellow first-rounder Rome Odunze, and DJ Moore complement D'Andre Swift, who will offer an excellent screen option while providing a consistent threat on the ground.
In addition, the Bears improved defensively and are stacked at corner and linebacker, while Montez Sweat and Darrell Taylor offer a solid pass-rush tandem.
While it's way too whimsical to suggest they'll be taken off the list of teams that have never won a Super Bowl, a playoff spot could be on the horizon.
Best Super Bowl odds: +3000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 3.23%
The 36-year-old Matthew Stafford was superb last season, and I expect him to mirror that vintage form in 2024. The Rams posted the seventh-best offensive DVOA and were tied with the Buffalo Bills for the seventh-best overall offensive grade.
Cooper Kupp is healthy, and Puka Nacua is entering his sophomore year, looking to emulate his runner-up OROY performance from last season.
Kyren Williams was outstanding in the backfield and will hope to play more than 12 games for the first time in his third season as a pro.
The Rams aren't nearly as promising defensively, though.
Even with Aaron Donald, who retired at the end of last season, the Rams r anked 22nd in DVOA.
Chris Shula is a first-time defensive coordinator, so a regression is expected, even with 19th-pick Jared Verse primed to take the league by storm.
Best Super Bowl odds: +3000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 3.23%
The Atlanta Falcons arguably made the most emphatic offseason statement, acquiring Kirk Cousins, drafting Michael Penix Jr., to everyone's surprise, and trading for pass rusher Matthew Judon, who reportedly rubbed many the wrong way in New England.
The Falcons won't care about that if Judon posts another 15-sack season.
Plus, Atlanta signed All-Pro safety Justin Simmons after Demarcco Hellams suffered an ankle injury against the Miami Dolphins in preseason.
There are question marks at corner and the pass rush, and it's unclear how the 32-year-o ld Judon will acquit himself after recovering from a severe injury. Beyond Judon, there isn't a ton of pass-rushing talent to call upon.
Despite those uncertainties, this team should win the AFC South.
Best Super Bowl odds: +1900 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 5%
The Dallas Cowboys are prime candidates for a regression despite signing CeeDee Lamb to a monstrous contract extension.
Dak Prescott is up for a new deal, and Micah Parsons has a year before stress levels increase regarding his future.
Mike McCarthy is a lame-duck coach, and new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer only signed for a year. The Cowboys have the 11th-hardest schedule and expect to start two rookie offensive linemen.
Their running game appears as flat and stale as a six-week-old gluten-free pancake, and I 'm not sure they have it in them to improve on last season's 4-5 road record.
Dallas is still good enough to make the playoffs, but we all know how most do-or-die games go for Prescott and Co.
Best Super Bowl odds: +2500 via bet365 | Implied probability: 3.85%
I can't place the Miami Dolphins in the top 10 until they prove themselves in nippy weather and against playoff-caliber teams. Miami is 2-19 in its last 21 games where the mercury dips below 50 degrees.
Add that to their current inferiority complex, which manifested in losing six of seven against playoff teams last season, including against the Chiefs in the wild-card game.
However, the Dolphins' offense would give the USA sprint team fits, and Tyreek Hill is rightly the Offensive Player of the Year odds front-runner. Plus, you can count on the Dolphins to dismantle middling and non-playoff teams.
Best Super Bowl odds: +2000 via bet365 | Implied probability: 4.76%
Let the Rodgers era be reborn, and hopefully it extends beyond four plays this time.
New York boasts one of the best defensive units even without contract holdout Haason Reddick. The Jets' defense last season posted the third-best DVOA and was graded first overall.
Rodgers staying on the field and conjuring a semblance of his best will be crucial for Gang Green to take the next step and end one of the longest Super Bowl droughts.
The Jets recently leapfrogged the Bills as AFC East favorites despite an anonymous NFL agent suggesting the team is in a state of “disarray” and that the “vibe inside the building is terrible.”
Until the Jets prove they're a playoff contender on the field, I can&# 39;t rank them higher than their divisional rivals in Buffalo.
Best Super Bowl odds: +1700 via Caesars | Implied probability: 5.56%
The injury bug hit the Bills hard during preseason, which could prevent them from a blistering start.
However, Josh Allen is on their roster, and he's one of the league's best playmakers. Also, the Bills were better when they reduced the now-departed Stefon Diggs' role in the offense last season.
They could find things difficult on the defensive side of the ball, with safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, edge rusher Leonard Floyd, and corner Dane Jackson departing.
And then there's Matt Milano's bicep injury to consider.
The Bills also face the 10th-hardest schedule, so expecting a better season than last is a recipe for disappointment.
Best Super Bowl odds: +1500 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 6.25%
While Joe Burrow can carry the Cincinnati Bengals to new heights in 2024, that's primarily predicated on whether they'll sign Ja'Marr Chase to a contract extension.
Hopefully, the Lamb contract extension in Dallas will pave the way for Chase to put pen to paper in Cincy.
Defensively, the Bengals do not hold up to the other upper-echelon teams.
They posted the seventh-worst grade overall and 23rd-ranked DVOA. Their run defense was particularly bad, which could hamper the team's chances of ascending to Super Bowl hopefuls.
Then again, anything is possible if Burrow remains healthy throughout the campaign.
Best Super Bowl odds: +1900 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 5%
Quarterback puritans would have salivated seeing Jordan Love turn it on during the second half of last season.
He scorched every field, spearheading the Green Bay Packers to the brink of the NFC Championship Game. He also inserted himself onto the list of highest-paid players with the best odds to win MVP.
The Packers' young, dynamic, and electric offense remains largely intact. So it should, in theory, either improve or maintain the status quo. It was given the sixth-ranked DVOA and was graded ninth overall.
Defensively, the Packers need to be better than last season.
They went out and secured former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley, who is highly regarded for his in-game intelligence and ability to trigger the proper schemes at opportune moments.
Best Super Bowl odds: +1600 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 5.88%
The Houston Texans face a brighter future than most, and they have the personnel to challenge for a Super Bowl immediately.
C.J. Stroud, who's among the five best young NFL quarterbacks with the shortest MVP odds, will benefit from plenty of offensive weapons. Diggs is the latest to join the star-studded offensive cast.
The Texans became the first team in a single offseason to add a 1,000-plus-yard receiver (Diggs), a 1,000-plus-yard rusher (Joe Mixon), and a player with 10-plus sacks (Denico Autry).
And they have last season's Defensive Rookie of the Year winner Will Anderson Jr. in addition to Danielle Hunter, who finished with 16.5 sacks.
Best Super Bowl odds: +1400 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 6.67%
The Philadelphia Eagles are ahead of the Texans because they reside in the inferior NFC.
They're a team with an axe to grind and countless playmakers who can unnerve any opponent.
The importance of acquiring Barkley cannot be overstated.
He provides Jalen Hurts a reliable and explosive outlet, whether on the ground or via short screen passes.
And the defense should be markedly better than last season when its secondary was putrid. Quinyon Mitchell, the team's 22nd pick, looks like the real deal. He'll either start at corner or nickel.
The Eagles also have an immeasurably superior defensive coordinator in charge, with Vic Fangio set to correct course on the wayward ship.
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Best Super Bowl odds: +1100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 8.33%
If only the Ravens had run the ball more against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Well, they might get their chance with the addition of all-time great Derrick Henry.
We all know what reigning MVP Lamar Jackson brings to the fold. But will his decimated offensive line be good enough to protect one of the league's best signal-callers? Even if it's not, Jackson evades and eludes with the best of them.
The Ravens' defense, which produced the best DVOA last season, should still be among the top five despite losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks.
Baltimore is staring at the fourth-most challenging schedule, something to keep in mind when making your Super Bowl futures picks. However, Jackson and the Ravens should yet again be in a position to kno ck on the Super Bowl door.
Best Super Bowl odds: +625 via Caesars | Implied probability: 13.79%
I can't, in good faith, place the San Francisco 49ers any higher than third until Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk are suited, booted, and ready to play.
Time is ticking, and neither player will get the necessary reps to be at their best in Week 1, assuming they get their way.
I can't see the 49ers returning to the Super Bowl without Williams, who is probably the team's most important player.
Their offensive line is a shadow of itself without him, while Aiyuk was Brock Purdy's favorite target last season.
The 49ers are elite even if neither player gets their desired contract extension, but they won't win it all without two of their most influential assets.
Best Super Bowl odds: +1200 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 7.69%
A loaded and explosive offense with playmakers at every position and a much-improved defense bodes well for the Detroit Lions, especially when that's combined with falling just short of the Super Bowl.
Plus, the Lions might only need to play outside three times all season, one of which is in temperate San Francisco.
Inside domes are on the long-term forecast for the Lions, which could provide the edge to put them over the top in the NFC.
Best Super Bowl odds: +575 via Caesars | Implied probability: 14.81%
Find me a power ranking that doesn't put the Chiefs first, and I'll put my life savings – as minimal as they are – on the Panthers to win the Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes, the three-time Super B owl champion and three-time Super Bowl MVP, is the MVP odds front-runner and has a reinforced receiving grid that includes speedster Xavier Worthy and the soon-to-return Marquise Brown.
Despite the departure of L'Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs still boast a solid defense.
Andy Reid's team gets the best chance of becoming the first three-peat Super Bowl winners in NFL history.
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