Can Florida State Win in 2024-25? How to Bet FSU After Stunning Loss to Georgia Tech

Rarely does Week 0 have a major impact on the college football championship odds, but it's not often a top 10 team by the AP Top 25 is sent overseas for its season opener.

Losing to Georgia Tech on a walk-off field goal in Dublin, Ireland certainly wasn't the way Mike Norvell thought his season would start after going 13-1 and being the last snub of the four-team College Football Playoff era.

So can Florida State win in 2024-25?

Unlike in year's past, one loss doesn't damn a team's season. With 12 programs set to qualify for the CFP, FSU still has the third-shortest College Football Playoff odds in the ACC.

But clearly, our best college football betting sites are doubting Florida State following the loss.

Florida State odds movement following Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech

Odds via DraftKings.

Can the Seminoles win the college football championship?

I'm not sure anyone outside of Tallahassee believed Florida State could win the whole thing heading into the season.

Norvell's squad was 13-1 last year because it had so much NFL talent, and a lot of those players are no longer with the program. And even with last year's magical run, Florida State finished just ninth in SP+. 

The Seminoles were tied for the third-most players selected in the 2024 NFL Draft (10) and rank just 83rd in returning production, filling those holes was never going to be easy. And it looks like it was even harder than anticipated based on the issues they had against the Yellow Jackets.

So taking double-digit pros off the roster and expecting the team to be better seems like lunacy. In the transfer portal era, quick fixes are possible, but they don't allow a team to reach the level of a contender like Georgia.

Norvell bringing in the seventh-best transfer portal class naturally led to plenty of hype around this team making the College Football Playoff. Yet, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone confidently betting Florida State to win it all over teams from the SEC or Big Ten.

The Georgia Tech loss just makes it even more clear that this isn 't going to be the first ACC team to take home the title since Clemson in 2019.

Can Florida State make the College Football Playoff?

To put it simply, yes. 

Thanks to the 12-team playoff, if the Seminoles win the ACC, they're in.

Obviously, they'll need to win enough games to qualify for the ACC Championship – the top two teams based on conference winning percentage qualify – but that's not an impossible task.

It actually now helps Florida State's case that it has the two ACC Championship odds favorites on its schedule. Before the Georgia Tech loss, it was a negative to play Clemson on Oct. 5 and Miami on Oct. 26, but now Florida State can potentially hand both a loss to impact their conference winning percentage.  

While that's easier said than done, Clemson has taken a step back in recent years under Dab o Swinney because of his unwillingness to embrace the portal.

Meanwhile, Mario Cristobal has gone all in on the portal, making the Hurricanes' roster hard to project. There's also still plenty of concern surrounding his game management skills – Miami had a far more embarrassing loss to Georgia Tech last year than Florida State's defeat in Dublin.

Could Florida State still get in without winning the ACC Championship though? That's a tough proposition given expansion essentially happened to put more SEC and Big Ten teams into the playoff.

Still, it's possible two ACC programs get in. On top of the five conference champions, the committee could go with three more SEC teams, two more Big Ten teams, and Notre Dame. That would leave room for a second ACC squad.

To earn that spot, Florida State needs to be impressive the rest of the season. It's reasonable to chalk up the We ek 0 loss to the fact the Seminoles have so many new starters (many of whom are transfers), had to play a scrappy Georgia Tech team, and the game took place overseas in Dublin with plenty of rainfall.

Florida State's next four games are against Boston College, Memphis, Cal, and SMU. Three of those are at home with the Mustangs coming on the road – and SMU looked terrible in Week 0 against lowly Nevada.

This team could mesh by October and be 4-1 when it plays Clemson at home. The Seminoles play Duke, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Charleston Southern, and Florida after Clemson.

The Seminoles will likely be favored in four of those six games, partially because they catch Miami and Notre Dame on the road. However, they may go 10-2, and a loss in the ACC Championship might not keep them out of the playoff.

Over the last three years, seven programs with three or more losses have finished i n the top 12 of the final College Football Playoff rankings.

So even with the automatic G5 qualifier knocking that number down under the new rules, at least one three-loss team is likely to get into the playoff.

I still don't think the committee would put a three-loss Florida State team in over an SEC or Big Ten school. But that doesn't mean I'm out on their chances of making the playoff.

Odds: +320 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 23.81%

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It's easy to overreact to a top 10 team losing to an unranked program before Week 1 has even started. But I think there's a couple factors that need to be considered before laughing me out of the room for thinking the Seminoles can still win the ACC.

For one, Florida State probably shouldn't have been ranked No. 10 after losing so much to the NFL. Of the 10 players the program had selected in the NFL draft, six went in the top 100 selections.

Those six players were:

• Star defensive linemen that made All-American teams Jared Verse, Braden Fiske
• Leading receiver and NFL Offensive rookie of the Year odds contender Keon Coleman
• Two top cornerbacks Renardo Green and Jarrian Jones
• Leading rusher Trey Benson

The other four players drafted were cornerstones of the program. One was Jordan Travis – who's seco nd in program history in passing yards and third in rushing touchdowns – two were team captains (Johnny Wilson, Tatum Bethune), and one was Jaheim Bell, who played everything from fullback to wide receiver.

Losing that much leadership and production and then having to play a team in another country in a bad weather game? That's a recipe for disaster, especially when the opponent is being slept on.

Georgia Tech opened as a 13.5-point underdog, but it had dropped to 10.5 by kickoff because it's easy to see this Yellow Jackets team is trending in the right direction under Brent Key.

In his first full season as head coach last year, the program won seven games for the first time since 2018, when Paul Johnson was running the triple option. They also beat two ranked teams in Miami and North Carolina, and played Georgia tough, losing by just eight.

This game was built to be a Georgia Tech up set, but that doesn't mean Florida State can't still win the conference.

A lot hinges on DJ Uiagalelei getting better. He showed improvements at Oregon State last year with 20 big-time throws and just nine turnover worthy plays, per PFF.

He's one of just three returning Power Four QBs who had 20-plus big-time throws and under 10 turnover-worthy plays last season.

It's safe to assume he's going to improve at Florida State as the year goes on and he gets more comfortable. Remember, before Norvell arrived there was talks of Travis being converted from a QB to a wide receiver due to his inconsistencies. 

And Uiagalelei isn't the only player on offense new to the playbook. Starting running back Roydell Williams (Alabama), guard Richie Leonard (Florida), wide receivers Malik Benson (Alabama) and Jalen Brown (LSU), and offensive chess piece Jaylin Lucas (Indiana) are all new to the program too.

But I trust in Norvell and an offensive line with 190-plus career starts to turn this thing around. The Seminoles should have a top-three offense in the conference by season's end.

And despite the poor showing against Georgia Tech's run game, this defense can be the best in the ACC if its talent clicks. Patrick Payton, Marvin Jones Jr., Darrell Jackson Jr., and Joshua Farmer are all future NFL players on the D-line.

The secondary might be just as good. FSU has all-ACC candidates in Azareye'h Thomas, Fentrell Cypress II, and Shyheim Brown.

That all doesn't mean the Seminoles will 100% win the conference, but the odds are a far better value now than backing similarly flawed programs like Clemson (+290) and Miami (+400).

At the price, if the Seminoles win the ACC, a $10 bet pays a $65 profit.

Best bet: Florida State to win ACC Championship (+650 via Caesars) | Implied probability: 13.33%

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