The New York Mets (+120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Friday, August 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Mets are 67-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 66-63 ATS.

Mets vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Paul Blackburn 5-3, 4.20 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-4, 5.03 ERA

Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 away games (+40.00 Units / 235% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+20.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+14.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+13.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• David Peralta has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 22 games (+22.00 Units / 100% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+13.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+12.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+12.35 Units / 42% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 38 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 69 games (+11.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 80 games (+8.60 Units / 8% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 68 of their last 119 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+6.30 Units / 7% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+14.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 52 games (+14.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 97 games (+8.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+4.25 Units / 11% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 61-67 against the Run Line (-9.45 Units / -5.85% ROI).

• 67-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.16% ROI
• 64-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• 58-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.4 Units / -8.31% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 66-63 against the Run Line (+5.3 Units / 3.31% ROI).

• 72-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 1.27% ROI
• 70-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.85 Units / 5.58% ROI
• 57-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.75 Units / -14.49% ROI

Padres vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (61/186) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (122/404) against Paul Blackburn on pitches in the strike zone since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (39/118) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (23/116) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% (107/315) against Joe Musgrove on fastballs since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .363 (248 PA’s) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .306 — third Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has walked 27 of 531 batters (5%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 90th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has not allowed a home run in any of the last 22.1 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 76.0.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
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