The New York Mets (+135) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on Thursday, August 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Mets are 66-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 66-62 ATS.

Mets vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 8-6, 3.90 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 12-9, 3.47 ERA

Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 away games (+41.00 Units / 256% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+19.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+13.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.35 Units / 38% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 50 games (+30.30 Units / 61% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+15.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+13.35 Units / 48% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+12.90 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 68 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 79 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+13.05 Units / 37% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 96 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 60-67 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -6.54% ROI).

• 66-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -2.02% ROI
• 63-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.72% ROI
• 58-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -7.5% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 66-62 against the Run Line (+6.3 Units / 3.96% ROI).

• 72-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 2.19% ROI
• 69-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 4.9% ROI
• 57-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.55 Units / -13.76% ROI

Padres vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (79/421) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (15/25) against Luis Severino this month (3 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 95th Percentile.

Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .590 (46 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .395 — sixth Percentile.

Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of .321 (212 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 17th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .263 (586 PAs) this season — ninth best among qualified SPs– 87th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.

Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 38% (87 SO in 229 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .151 (30-for-199) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .115 (32-for-279) against Dylan Cease when ahead in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .187 — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
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