Justin Verlander makes his way back from injury with a difficult matchup against the Boston Red Sox, while Logan Webb will look to continue his strong stretch with an advantageous matchup at home against the White Sox. Today’s prop article highlights both of these pitchers, so let’s dive in!
Justin Verlander (HOU) under 5.5 strikeouts + Logan Webb (SFG) over 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
Justin Verlander lasted pitched in an MLB game on June 9 against the Los Angeles Angels, allowing 4 earned runs while recording just 3 strikeouts in 5 innings of work. On the season Verlander has tossed 57 innings, recording 51 strikeouts while staying under the 4.5 mark in 6 of 10 starts made. Today we get a 5.5 line in his return to the majors, and I am looking to fade that mark for a few reasons. Even when healthy Verlander ranked just 25th percentile in whiff rate, 27th percentile in chase rate, and 26th percentile in CSW%. These subpar marks are not what Verlander has been accustomed to throughout his Hall-of-Fame career, and it is clear that the veteran righty has taken a step back in the strikeout department.
Verlander made just 2 rehab outings at the minor league level, tossing 52 and 57 pitches while facing 12 and 17 batters respectively in those starts. He did record 8 strikeouts in those 7 innings of work, but the workload is where my main focus is. Verlander averages 18.86 pitches per strikeout recorded at the MLB level this season, and we likely don’t see him even reach 80 pitches in this spot. Manager Joe Espada said, “I don’t want to put a number because he can surprise us. But we’re going to keep a close eye on his workload, for sure.” If the veteran is cruising through his start, we could see 5 or 6 innings, but with workload concerns and a tough matchup there is quite a bit of value here in my eyes. Boston can strikeout at the plate, but they have also been dominant against right-handed pitching since the all-star break, ranking 3rd in wOBA with a 130 wRC+.