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If you're going to bet on a market as volatile as home run props, then you may as well place your wagers on players who are fun to watch. That's exactly what we've done with our home run predictions on Tuesday.
As we inch closer toward the regular-season finish line, games begin to have greater significance with postseason spots on the line.
That's especially true for the Seattle Mariners, who visit the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday, and we're backing star outfielder Randy Arozarena to help keep the Mariners' slim hopes alive.
We're also targeting a pair of fellow slugging outfielders, though one has been significantly better than the other this season.
Will Anthony Santander continue his dominant power display, and can Luis Robert get hot for the final month to provide Chicago White Sox fans with the smallest amount of joy?
Home run predictions for Tuesday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Eugenio Suarez (+600 via FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins (Edward Cabrera), at loanDepot park ??
- Anthony Santander (+440 via FanDuel) vs. New York Mets (Jose Quintana), at Citi Field ???
- Luis Robert (+625 via BetMGM) vs. San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray), at Oracle Park ???
- Randy Arozarena (+560 via FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler), at Dodger Stadium ???
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
Best home run props today
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 18 | HR/9: 1.67 |
| SLG%: .419 | HR/FB%: 22.9% |
| FB%: 43% | FB%: 31.6% |
| Hard hit %: 40.7% | Hard hit %: 45.5% |
Diamondbacks third baseman Suarez isn't the same player he was when he smashed 49 long balls in 2019, or even the same one who perennially hit 30 after that . However, he still goes up to the plate ready to swing out of his shoes in the name of hitting a homer, and that's all we can ask for.
My favorite thing about this bet is the price, as our other best sports betting sites have a Suarez home run priced around +500.
I wouldn't make this bet at those odds, but this +600 price at FanDuel is providing us with roughly 15% positive expected value based on his projections.
Best odds: +600 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 14.29%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 36 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .525 | HR/FB%: 14.2% |
| FB%: 56.9% | FB%: 36.7% |
| Hard hit %: 41.7% | Hard hit %: 39% |
Santander is certainly the player among this group who's had the most success going yard this season. His 36 big flies already represent a career high, and he looks well on his way to 40-plus.
“Tony Taters” has also been much better away from home this season, hitting 21 of his 36 homers on the road.
Once again, we're getting a great rogue price on this home run prop, as our other best sports betting apps are offering it at +375. We're getting better than 20% +EV on this bet through Santander's top-tier projections, which have become the norm for him.
Best odds: +440 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 18.52%
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 14 | HR/9: 2.57 |
| SLG%: .418 | HR/FB%: 26.1% |
| FB%: 42% | FB%: 51.1% |
| Hard hit %: 43.8% | Hard hit %: 32.6% |
Robert's 2024 campaign is a microcosm for Chicago's season in general. The outfielder has been downright pitiful, as his 36.7% strikeout rate is a career-worst by a significant margin after he already regressed in that regard last year (19.2% in 2022 to 28.9%).
However, Robert still has plenty of pop in his bat, and Giants left-hander Ray has been giving up homers for fun since making his debut late in the season.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened with Robert's home run prop priced at similar +602 odds. However, it's moved this number to +505, signaling that sharp money is on our side.
Best odds: +625 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 13.79%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 16 | HR/9: 2.45 |
| SLG%: .386 | HR/FB%: 22.9% |
| FB%: 42.4% | FB%: 36.1% |
| Hard hit %: 42.9% | Hard hit %: 37% |
This profiles as the highest EV bet of the day and the one with the biggest discrepancy between our best odds and those at Pinnacle.
Much like Robert, Arozarena has experienced a steep decline from his past few seasons, but he's been at least slightly better for the Mariners since being traded. The one thing lacking from his profile is homers, but I think he'll add another to his total on Tuesday.
Based on his projections, this +560 price at FanDuel provides us with better than 56% +EV on this bet. Meanwhile, Pinnacle opened at +500 and is all the way down to +425 now.
Best odds: +560 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 15.15%
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