Today looking through the NRFI bets, I saw something you do not see very often. The NRFI bet for the Padres Rockies game is +130. Both starters have ERAs over 5, so it makes sense on paper, but that’s definitely one that I don’t see very often. While I cannot justify betting that one, there are a few I like better on today’s slate.
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The Guardians are one of the hottest teams in baseball, carried mainly by their elite pitching staff. While their offense has not necessarily been a strong suit, their top end of the lineup is significantly better than the rest of the lineup. Today, Jon Gray takes the mound against them, and Gray has actually had a pretty decent first season in Texas. He has not necessarily been the ace they hoped for, but he has been slightly above average across the board. He has a K/9 over nine with about three walks per nine as well. He does allow a baserunner an inning, but as long as he can keep Jose Ramirez from doing a ton of damage, he should be able to keep the Guardians off the board.
On the other side of this is rookie Cody Morris. Morris only has pitched 15 big league innings but comes into the game with a 2.3 ERA. However, the underlying metrics do not paint a pretty picture. He has allowed nine walks and three homers in those fifteen innings. That is certainly a concern in the first against this Rangers lineup with several power hitters due to hit in the first. However, I do think that the skills that Morris has shown in the majors have been a bit of an aberration. Across his minor league seasons, he did not have any issues with walks or homers, and I think this could be a get-right game for him. The Rangers do swing and miss more than most offenses, and I think this could allow Morris to have a clean first frame.