UFC 305 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 305 and picks for August 17th with the main event headlined by Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya in a middleweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from RAC Arena in Perth Australia.
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Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya: UFC 305 Main Event
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UFC 305 Predictions
Stewart Nicoll -225 vs Jesus Aguilar +185
This should be a really fun fight to open the card, and if you like playing underdogs, I think Aguilar is a decent sprinkle.
Nicoll looks for the takedown where he's been able to overwhelm opponents and get ground and pound finishes, but Aguilar is no pushover.
He barely won his last fight against Mendonca where there were many takedowns, and reversals, and I haven't seen a fight where Nicoll had to deal with someone who was scrappy enough to reverse his position on the ground.
Nicoll could get position in the first round, but if he doesn't get the finish I think Aguilar can frustrate him and win some exchanges on the feet and on the ground.
No chance I'm taking Nicoll at -225, Aguilar is the play, and to give you even better odds, I might take a shot on Aguilar by decision as I think there will be a lot of wrestling and ground time with no finishes.
Kenan Song -198 vs Ricky Glenn +164
This is “Fade The Side Hustle Theory” as Ricky Glenn is a plumber, and the UFC is his side hustle. He has one win since 2028, and he's been knocked out in the first round in his last two fights, and I have to believe his UFC career is coming to an end.
He's not fast on the feet, and it appears like he doesn't have the KO power anymore, and I think he gets handed another loss here.
Song has lost three in a row, but he's lost to Max Griffin, Ian Garry and Kevin Jousset, all solid opponents, and he has a win against Bedoya mixed in. Like Glenn, he doesn't seem to have the KO power anymore, but he went the distance against Jousset, and I like his movement on the feet a lot better.
Unless Glenn finds the fountain of youth, and gets the KO I think Song outworks him on the feet en route to a decision win.
Tom Nolan -1100 vs Alex Reyes +700
Not a lot of analysis needed for this one. Nolan is from Australia, and this is a layup fight for him. Reyes hadn't fought since 2018 until he took a fight a while back, and he got KO'd in round 1.
Nolan has a lot of work to do before he's a Top 10 guys, but he's going to KO Reyes who's way past his prime.
Jack Jenkins -625 vs Herbert Burns +455
Herbert Burns is a sacrificial lamb in this matchup. This event is in Australia, and Jenkins is from there and Burns will certainly be grateful to just get another fight and paycheck as he’s stepping in fairly short notice, and he’s most likely done in the UFC after this.
Injuries, lack of cardio, lack of focus, and him completely quitting in fights have him on a 3 fight-losing streak where he’s competitive for about 1 minute, and then he just gives up.
Jenkins has brutal leg kicks and as soon as he lands a few of those, Burns will want out of this fight, and Burns doesn’t have the offense to scare Jenkins early in the fight. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line ends up at -1000 so we need to put this in ASAP.
Luana Santos -180 vs Casey O'Neil +150
I've been correct on fading Casey O'Neil in the last two fights as she hasn't looked good since her knee injury, and she's only beaten bad competition.
Her striking hasn't been great, and neither has her ground game or striking defense, and I'm not really sure where she's better than Santos.
Two fights ago, O'Neil lost to Jennifer Maia, and Maia isn't in the UFC anymore. Santos has finished Agapova and Miller, and while neither are good, she also beat Egger by decision, and I'd rather bet on the fighter with upside.
This -180 may look like a bargain if O'Neil hasn't improved any so I'll gladly take Santos to win this one.
Josh Culibao -166 vs Ricardo Ramos +145
Two guys who I don't trust in this fight so I won't bet anything on it, but I think this fight comes down to whether or not Culibao can take advantage of the massive, dumb mistakes that Ramos will make.
Because Ramos does it every fight. He'll give his opponent 2-3 big opportunities to win the fight, and in his last two fights, Jourdain and Erosa have taken advantage and submitted him in round one.
I'm not a Culibao fan as I think he's overrated, and if he can't take advantage of the Ramos mistakes, I think Ramos wins the striking battle on the feet. I can't bet my own money on either of these guys so it's a pass on everything on this fight.
Junior Tafa -118 vs Valter Walker -102