The Kansas City Royals (-105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-115) on Tuesday, August 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

This season, the Royals are 65-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 58-60 ATS.

Royals vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 13-6, 2.71 ERA
• Twins starting pitcher: Louie Varland 0-4, 6.39 ERA

Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:

• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games (+19.60 Units / 178% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+18.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+12.20 Units / 25% ROI)
• Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games (+22.50 Units / 132% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+14.80 Units / 57% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+14.80 Units / 57% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.15 Units / 43% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)

Royals Best Bets Today:

• The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 115 games (+8.89 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 54% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.15 Units / 33% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 53 games at home (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+14.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+10.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 98 games (+8.95 Units / 6% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 66-53 against the Run Line (+5.29 Units / 3.32% ROI).

• 65-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 5.09% ROI
• 54-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -9.87% ROI
• 61-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 0.92% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 58-60 against the Run Line (-3.5 Units / -2.35% ROI).

• 66-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• 61-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.2 Units / 4.05% ROI
• 51-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.4 Units / -12.7% ROI

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .256 (20-for-78) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — 92nd Percentile.

Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 20% (19 SO in 94 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 15th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (32/185) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.

Seth Lugo has allowed an OPS of just .573 (293 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .674 — 85th Percentile.

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 61% of Louie Varland’s pitches (52/85) this month (1 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Louie Varland in the 2023 season was 413.0 feet — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.8

Louie Varland allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.0 MPH (192 batted balls) in the 2023 season — tied for 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 — seventh Percentile.

Louie Varland has not walked any of the 24 batters that he has faced this month (1 games) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

  
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