Thursday was a pretty busy day in the Tuley’s Takes office.
It started by writing the USC and UCLA betting previews that we at VSiN provide for the Los Angeles Times (we don’t necessarily give picks in those stories as they’re mostly just general previews with an emphasis on the odds, though I did give a lean on the Under 58 in the UCLA-Colorado game on Saturday) and doing some editing for VSiN’s upcoming NBA Betting Guide. We were excited about our Thursday night wagers, but we ended up disappointed because even though it looked like the Steelers would cover + 4.5 as our Best Bet, the Browns pulled away for a 29-17 victory. The Browns were already covering before tacking on a TD on the final play of the game on a desperation lateral play by the Steelers (see our regular daily recaps below for the gambling implications on that). We also lost our CFB play on Virginia Tech + 1.5 vs. Virginia as they also hung around early but then got run over late in a 33-10 loss. At least we won our MLB 1st 5 bet on the Diamondbacks at + 0.5 + 110 as Zac Gallen gave up just 1 run to the Dodgers through the first 5 innings and it looked like we would win our 1st 5 money-line play as well, but he gave up 1 run in the bottom of the 4th to push that bet but we still cashed on the + 0.5 for the second day in a row with a tie. Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more plays on Friday (plus a few college football plays for Saturday). In addition, like we’ve started doing with this season, we’ll rerun our entire Wednesday column and update our plays throughout the weekend as the lines move for readers who are waiting to make their bets (but beware you’ll miss out on some better numbers at times, though in a lot of cases we do recommend waiting until closer to gameday to bet our underdogs as the public will often bet the lines higher). Thursday’s RecapsNFL: Browns beat Steelers 29-17 on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3. The Browns also covered after closing as 4.5-point home favorites. The game went Over the closing betting total of 38 points on the Steelers' late FG, but then a fumble recovery for a Cleveland TD on the final play of the game (a desperation lateral play by the Steelers deep in their own territory) burned Pittsburgh and Under 6-point teasers (both would have cashed if score had stayed 23-17).
More NFL: Week 3 started with home SU/home ATS/fave SU/fave ATS/Over result. ON THE SEASON, faves lead 19-11-1 SU with 1 pick-'em, but dogs still lead 17-14-1 ATS (54.8 percent). Home teams improved to 18-14-1 SU and ATS (56.3 percent). Unders dipped to 21-11-1 (65.6 percent) while primetime Unders dipped to 6-2 (75 percent) on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights.
CFB: West Virginia beat Virginia Tech 33-10 and Coastal Carolina beat Georgia State 41-24 as both covered as 2.5-point road favorites in the only #CFB games on the main betting board on Friday night. The former stayed Under 49.5 points while the latter went Over 63.5. In an “extra game,” Illinois beat Tennessee-Chattanooga 31-0 to also cover as a 20-point home fave (stayed Under 44.5).
MLB: Faves went 7-6 Thursday with the Dodgers (-215) rallying in the bottom of the 9th to beat Diamondbacks 3-2 on Mookie Betts’ walk-off, pinch-hit single. Biggest upsets on the night were by the Orioles (+ 170 in 2-0 win at Astros), Cardinals (+ 135 in 5-4 win at Padres) and Phillies (+ 122 in 1-0 win vs. Braves). Home teams were also 7-6. Unders 8-5.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,330-872 SU (60.4 percent) on the season with 35 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,183-1,062 (52.7 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but has been on the rise). Unders lead 1,102-1,028-117 (51.7 percent).
Friday’s TakesA’s 1st 5 + 0.5 + 105 vs. Mets: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! Let go with a 1st 5 run line play and try to hit for a 3rd straight day, this time fading the Mets, who just had a 6-game losing streak snapped. Now, we usually prefer these plays the day after that happens, but the Mets had a travel day Thursday to head West to Oakland. But we’re going with it anyway as at least we have Cole Irvin (3-0 in his last 4 starts, though he has a high 1.89 WHIP). It’s tough fading the Mets’ Chris Bassitt, but we just need to have the A’s be tied through 5 innings and the A’s have been pretty good to me this summer including cashing with this same type of bet Wednesday night.
Tigers 1st 5 + 150 at White Sox: Our other MLB play for Friday is on the Tigers. The White Sox start Luis Giolito (10-9, 5.07 ERA, 1.49 WHIP), but he’s not as dominant as he’s been in recent years. The Tigers counter with Eduardo Rodriguez (3-5, 4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), whose stats are better than Giolito’s except for his W-L record, though that’s only because he pitches for a worse overall team. However, we just need him to keep the Tigers in it like he has in his other two starts vs. the White Sox this season.
Notre Dame + 1.5 at North Carolina
Boston College + 17.5 at Florida State Hawaii + 4.5 at New Mexico State Utah State + 3 vs. UNLV THURSDAY Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-4.5)The Thursday nighter gives us a battle between co-leaders in the AFC North as the Steelers and Browns are 1-1 and also tied with the Ravens atop the division (with the Bengals a game behind at 0-2) as all four teams lost in Week 2. The Browns should have beaten the Jets if Kareem Hunt or Nick Chubb had gone down in-bounds like they were supposed to, but instead they allowed the Jets to get the ball back and Joe Flacco threw 2 TD passes wrapped around an onside kick to rally for a 31-30 upset. The Steelers came up short vs. the Patriots, but I don’t see why the Browns should be favored by more than a field goal here as the advance line last week was Browns -3 but is now over -4 (and was at 5 at some books, including DraftKings, on Tuesday). Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers’ offense didn’t look as good as they did in the Week 1 win at the Bengals, but they should benefit from facing a Cleveland defense that is allowing an average of 17 points in the fourth quar ters so far this season. The Steelers also have the edge on defense and should be able to contain the Jacoby Brissett-led Browns offense.
Best Bet: Steelers + 4.5 (pool play: Steelers in all my rare SU and ATS contests that use the Thursday night game).
SUNDAY
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots
The Ravens’ also blew a big lead in their Week 2 loss to the Dolphins as they were rolling along before the collapse. This line also looks like it could be on the rise as the NFL Betting Splits page on VSiN.com (with info from DraftKings) shows 90 percent of the bets and money on the Ravens early this week. But even if this gets to 3.5, I don’t think I’ll be able to pull the trigger on the Patriots, who lost 20-7 to that same Miami team and haven’t shown the same offensive firepower (7 points vs. Dolphins, 17 vs. the Steelers) to keep up with a Baltimore offense that is averaging 31 points per game behind QB Lamar Jackson.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – higher if contest uses -2.5, lower if it uses 3.5 – and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins
This was one of the plays I gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (my weekly appearance is 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version) and in my earlier columns this week as I thought we wouldn’t get any better than Dolphins + 4.5. I was wrong about that as the Bills routed the Titans 41-7 on Monday night and this line has been adjusted up to 5.5, but that’s OK with us as 5 is less of a key number than 4, so we’ll let our original bet ride. It’s scary to fade the Bills again with how dominant they’ve been in routs of the Rams and Titans, but Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins showed they can get in a shootout with anyone.
Best Bet: Dolphins + 5.5, though if you haven’t bet yet, I’d wait for + 6 (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at New York Jets
The Bengals are certainly suffering from the Super Bowl loser hangover as they’re off to an 0-2 start. They should get in the win column here, that is as long as Joe Burrow doesn’t keep having to face pressure from a porous offensive line. The Jets were certainly impressive in rallying to beat the Browns behind Joe Flacco (and the Browns failing to run out the clock), but I can’t trust either of those things to happen two weeks in a row so I’m also passing on this home dog.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints (-2.5 -120) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have been more competitive than expected (though both of their games against the Browns and Giants have been lined around pick-’em so it shouldn’t be too surprising), but I believe they’re taking a step up in class here against the Saints. I can’t take them at such a short price, but they’re a prime teaser play as we can move the line up over a touchdown. This is a good place to list the preferred teaser plays for this week (though they’ve been underperforming for us so far) as I’ll use the Panthers in a 2-team, 6-point teaser at + 8.5 in combination with the Titans + 8.5 vs. the Raiders in Sunday’s early games. Other potential teaser plays include the Packers + 8 at the Buccaneers, Falcons + 8 at Seahawks, Broncos + 7.5 vs. the 49ers on Sunday night and the Cowboys + 8.5 at the Giants on Monday night.
Best Bet: Panthers-Titans in 6-point teaser, plus other teaser plays (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Saints 55/45 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)