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I've been wagering on the NFL preseason for years. It started as a hypothesis – can you make money betting on meaningless football? – and has turned into one of my most profitable endeavors every summer.
There's only so much our best sports betting sites can do when it comes to pricing preseason football, when Super Bowl odds and other projections are (mostly) thrown out the window.
Instead, it's all about sifting through the noise and identifying the information that matters most, before our best NFL betting sites can do the same.
As with any NFL picks, nothing is a guarantee. But if you follow these five tips, you'll put yourself at an advantage over our best sportsbooks for three glorious weeks in August.
Know your coaches
This is the most obvious preseason tip, and it's the one that our best sports betting apps have most caught onto. But it's also the first place you should look when it comes to betting on the NFL preseason.
Some coaches extol the virtues of exhibition football as a way to prepare their team for the rigors of the regular season. Nobody exemplifies that mindset more than Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh, who is on record saying how much he values these few weeks to prepare his entire roster.
Sure enough, he's won 44 of 58 preseason games (75.9%), including an absurd 24-game win streak that ended last season. As a result, the Ravens tend to earn a little extra respect from oddsmakers each preseason – and deservedly so.
On the other end, Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay – and many in his extended coaching tree – have openly dismissed the preseason as meaningless. He's reticent to even play his starters in the typical Week 3 showcase to avoid injuri es, even if it means a rustier roster come Week 1.
It shouldn't surprise anyone, then, to see the lousy preseason records for McVay (7-14), Kevin O'Connell (0-6), Zac Taylor (3-9), and others with a similar mindset. Those aren't fluke records, and you shouldn't treat them as such when doing your own handicapping.
Study the depth chart
Though some coaches shelf their starters completely, most give their first-team unit a few drives in the second and third weeks before handing the keys to their backups.
Remember that even if the results don't matter to coaches and fans, every play is do-or-die for the hundreds of players fighting for a roster spot. And because of that, it's critically important to assess the level of talent on the field when those desperate second- and third-string players get their chance.
That's especially true under center . Consider teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders, whose starting quarterback jobs are uncertain, or the talented crop of rookie passers who might get an extended run in the preseason.
It's a major advantage to have a high-caliber arm (at least by preseason standards) going against a second-string defense for 45-plus minutes. The same goes for teams with more aggregate roster talent, like the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, when facing a team with a thin roster overall that might struggle to keep pace by the fourth quarter.
Stay informed
Any longtime NFL bettor knows the best way to take advantage of our best live betting sites is to target markets for which information is scarce.
Think about it: if you're betting a regular-season NFL game, there is so much data available to sportsbooks that you'll always be working at a deficit, lest you have the multi-million dollar infrastructure of a DraftKings or FanDuel. But it doesn't cost anything (besides time) to beat them to the punch on breaking news.
That's key in the preseason, when coaches are often much freer with information pertaining to lineups, game plans, or even specific plays or formations they plan to use in key spots. That opens up a world of betting opportunities … especially if you place your bets before sportsbooks can adjust.
Pick your spots
This is always good advice, as blindly betting into -110 odds is the best way to lose 10% of your bankroll in a hurry. But it's especially true in the preseason, when the results are even more “random” than usual.
Of course, that isn't the case if you're doing the research. If you know that one side has a coach with a strong preseason record or is rolling out its starting quarterback, fire away on a first-half or full-game bet. If two teams' bench units are evenly matched but one is a heavy favorite, take the points.
For most games, though, it's better to watch from the sidelines and save your hard-earned cash for the regular season. Remember, you'll always make more money by winning a handful of calculated bets than by chasing a high volume of coin-flip wagers.
Don't fall for low totals
If you aren't used to betting on the preseason, it can be easy to be swept up by a totals market that seems completely out of whack.
Case in point: the lowest O/U by the NFL Week 1 odds is 40.5, which would rank as the highest total of this week's preseason action. That isn't an oversight by the betting market. Rather, coaches tend to play conservatively in the preseason to avoid injuries to key personnel and provide valuable reps to high-contact positions that require more depth.
Traditionally, the Under has actually been the more profitable play even with such low totals, though you shouldn't blindly bet either side in the preseason (or any game, for that matter). Instead, consider the coaching history, depth charts, and recent information for each matchup and attack the ones that stand out. You can thank me later.
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