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History doesn't favor Germany as they prepare to face the USA in Tuesday's Olympic women's soccer semifinal. They have lost five of the previous six head-to-head matches against the Americans at major tournaments, including a 4-1 setback in the group stage on July 28.
Not only does the head-to-head record heavily favor the Americans, but they've also found a home away from home in France, where they've won 12 consecutive matches dating back to the start of the 2019 World Cup.
The favorites heading into the semifinals, according to our best sports betting sites, Team USA are looking to advance to their first final since capturing gold at London 2012. The Germans won their only Olympic title at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Games.
Our USA vs. Germany odds, picks, and predictions focus on the outcome and most likely goal scorer.
USA vs. Germany predictions for Tuesday
USA vs. Germany odds via our best soccer betting sites; soccer picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Final score: USA 2 – USA 1 (+750) ???
- Sophia Smith anytime goal scorer (+200) ????
- Best bet: USA & Under 3.5 goals (+150) ????
USA vs. Germany score prediction
The semifinals of a major tournament tend to be low-scoring, scrappy affairs decided by a moment of magic or a massive mistake. Last week's group stage encounter between these sides saw five goals, four of which were by the Americans. While I don't expect another barrage of goals, both teams created heaps of chances in that match. Germany should have scored at least two, maybe three more than their solo marker.
While things will be much tighter in the semifinal, both teams will want to express themselves and play on the front foot. Neither side scored a goal in the opening 90 minutes of their respective quarterfinals, with the Americans prevailing thanks to a sensational Trinity Rodman strike in extra time.
Germany needed penalties to break the 0-0 stalemate against Canada.
This match could follow a similar script, but the abundance of offensive talent on display will hopefully provide at least three unforgettable moments.
The +750 odds will yield a $75 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Odds: +750 | Implied probability: 11.76%
USA vs. Germany anytime goal scorer prediction
Sophia Smith has two goals in four Olympic games thus far, both of which came against the Germans. She was at her predatory best against Germany in the 4-1 win, and I expect her to be the most likely goal scorer in th e semifinals.
Smith has 19 goals in 32 starts with the national team, and six in 13 World Cup, Olympic, and World Championship matches. She rises to the occasion in marquee matches, and I expect nothing different in one of the most high-profile matches possible.
You'll earn a $20 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Odds: +200 | Implied probability: 33.33%
USA vs. Germany best bet
The USA have found their groove under new head coach Emma Hayes, who is undefeated in her first eight matches at the helm, winning seven and drawing one. She's the second head coach in the decorated program's history to win the first four matches at a major tournament.
Germany are one position above the USA in the latest FIFA rankings. However, the USA are the world's in-form team and have a hurricane, gale-force strength wi nd of momentum at their back.
In addition, Germany have been particularly wasteful in front of goal and won't have their most influential midfielder, Lena Oberdorf, who was forced to miss the Olympics through injury.
If there's Under 3.5 total goals before the full-time whistle, you'll earn a $15 profit on a $10 wager.
Odds: +150 | Implied probability: 40%
USA vs. Germany odds & game info
| USA | Germany | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -105 | +310 |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-125) |
| Spread | -0.5 (-115) | +0.5 (-120) |
- When: Tuesday, Aug. 6
- Time: Noon ET
- Where: Stade de Lyon (Lyon, France)
- How to watch: USA Network, Peacock
- Favorite: USA (-105)
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