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The USA will face their stiffest challenge of the Olympics when they square off against Japan in Saturday's first quarterfinal.
Winning all three group-stage games by a combined 9-2, Emma Hayes has enjoyed a dream start to her first major tournament in charge of the Americans. Hayes' side easily took care of the Germans, a side ranked three positions above Japan.
Though current form belies those rankings, the Americans shouldn't fear any team at this juncture, especially after acquitting themselves magnificently throughout the group stage.
Our USA vs. Japan odds, picks, and predictions focus on the outcome and most likely goalscorer. The USA enter Saturday's final-eight tilt as the clear favorites across our best sports betting sites.
Japan's opportunistic, often-lethal counterattack poses a threat to the USA's gold-med al hopes. However, form and a dominant head-to-head record favor the Americans. The USA have won seven of the eight tilts against Japan at major tournaments.
USA vs. Japan predictions for Saturday
USA vs. Japan odds via our best soccer betting sites; soccer picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Final score: USA 2 – Loser 1 (+700) ???
- Mallory Swanson anytime goalscorer (+160) ????
- Best bet: USA ML (-150) ????
USA vs. Japan score prediction
The USA have the tournament's best offensive contingent. They scored nine goals in three group encounters, netting six against Germany and Australia, the world's fourth and 12th-ranked teams, respectively.
Meanwhile, Japan didn't keep a clean sheet in the group stage, allowing four goals.
T hough the Americans can score goals, they're not watertight defensively. Susceptible to the counter-attack and wide penetrating balls into the box, the USA will have to be on high alert against a Japanese side that prefers to concede possession and attack on the break.
Japan have scored at least once in 17 straight contests since April 2023. While the Americans should have just enough to punch their semifinal ticket, I can't see them keeping a clean sheet. The +700 odds will yield a profit of $70 on a winning $10 wager.
Odds: +700 | Implied probability: 12.50%
USA vs. Japan anytime goal scorer prediction
Swanson leads the Americans with three goals, scoring two against Zambia and one vs. Germany before being held off the scoresheet against Australia. She's scored on three of five shots on target and provides a constant threat, popping up with the quintess ential ruthlessness of a top-tier forward.
Swanson has 27 goals in 43 starts with the USA, including six in 13 World Cup, World Championship, and Olympic contests.
With the +160 odds, you'll profit $16 on a $10 bet if Swanson scores before the full-time whistle.
Odds: +160 | Implied probability: 38.46%
USA vs. Japan best bet
The USA last won the Olympic gold medal in the 2012 London Games. Three tournaments without gold doesn't seem like a long time. And for most teams, it isn't.
However, the American women's soccer program bursts with elite pedigree, even during their comparatively abbreviated slides, making three tournaments feel like an eternity.
Hayes has got her team firing on all offensive cylinders. While her defense is still a work in progress, the USA are in an irrepressibly confid ent mood and built a ton of momentum throughout the group stage.
Their abundance of elite scoring talent should be enough to facilitate a quarterfinal victory over Japan without requiring extra time or penalties.
The -150 odds will yield a $6.67 profit on a $10 bet if the Americans win in 90 minutes.
Odds: -150 | Implied probability: 60%
USA vs. Japan odds & game info
| USA | Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -150 | +380 |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 (-160) | Under 2.5 (+125) |
| Spread | -0.5 (-160) | +0.5 (+115) |
- When: Saturday, Aug. 3
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Where: Parcs des Princes (Paris, France)
- How to watch: USA Network, Peacock
- Favorite: USA (-150)
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