Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul. 31
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul. 31

The Seattle Mariners (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Wednesday, July 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Mariners are 57-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 49-57 ATS.

Mariners vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 8-7, 2.88 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 10-5, 5.31 ERA

Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 14 away games (+17.10 Units / 122% ROI)
  • Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 away games (+10.85 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Cal Raleigh has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+9.05 Units / 60% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 32 games (+21.10 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+14.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Jamie Westbrook has hit the Singles Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+12.35 Units / 21% ROI)

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 away games (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+4.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 76 games (+4.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.70 Units / 34% ROI)

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games (+15.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 106 games (+6.25 Units / 4% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 49-60 against the Run Line (-15.7 Units / -11.32% ROI).

  • 57-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -5.25% ROI
  • 46-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.3 Units / -15.42% ROI
  • 59-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.45 Units / 7.08% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 49-57 against the Run Line (-15.5 Units / -11.04% ROI).

  • 56-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.11% ROI
  • 53-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.56% ROI
  • 48-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -10 Units / -8.57% ROI

Red Sox vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 0.5 +310 0.5 -400
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +320 0.5 -400
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Jorge Polanco (SEA) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650

Red Sox vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Dylan Moore (SEA) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Jorge Polanco (SEA) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Red Sox vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +120 0.5 -160
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 0.5 +120 0.5 -155
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 0.5 +135 0.5 -185
Jorge Polanco (SEA) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Jarren Duran (BOS) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190

Red Sox vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brayan Bello (BOS) 5.5 -105 5.5 -125
George Kirby (SEA) 5.5 +100 5.5 -135

George Kirby has walked 5 of 198 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

George Kirby has walked 21 of 691 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

George Kirby has allowed an OBP of just .248 (472 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.

George Kirby has walked 33 of 1,277 batters (3%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (88/488) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 172 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (26/70) against Brayan Bello on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (168/281) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (31/85) against Brayan Bello this month (5 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

  
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